The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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El Paso Chihuahuas v Las Vegas Aviators

Kickoff: 2026-09-02 18:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

El Paso Chihuahuas (Local)

Prediction 41.24%2.43fair odd
EV +7.22%
Edge +2.78%
Kelly +4.51%
Growth +0.325%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.64%40.77%40.70%44.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.332.342.6046.51%42.92%42.74%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Las Vegas Aviators (Visit)

Prediction 58.76%1.70fair odd
EV -0.690%
Edge -0.408%
Kelly -1.000%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.99%59.23%59.30%64.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.581.571.6969.44%63.25%63.69%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: El Paso Chihuahuas (Local): 41.24%; Las Vegas Aviators (Visit): 58.76%. For El Paso Chihuahuas (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.43. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.22%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV +7.22%E +2.78%K +4.51%G +0.325%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -15.38%E -10.68%K -34.96%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-02 13:10
1xBet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.81%EV +1.44%E +0.586%K +0.988%G +0.014%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.19%EV -8.33%E -5.34%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 16:59
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.09%E -1.32%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.74%E -4.93%K -13.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 17:50
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -3.09%E -1.32%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -8.33%E -5.34%K -14.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-02 17:54
FanDuel🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.31%EV -3.51%E -1.50%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.69%EV -7.15%E -4.53%K -12.33%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 18:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.16%E -2.24%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.57%E -4.13%K -11.13%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 17:59
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.22%E -3.21%K -5.77%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.74%E -4.93%K -13.58%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-02 18:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV -10.52%E -4.85%K -8.99%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -1.87%E -1.12%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 17:50
Caesars🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -11.34%E -5.28%K -9.86%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -0.690%E -0.408%K -1.000%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-02 17:58
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.