The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Durham Bulls v Round Rock Express

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 22:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Durham Bulls (Local)

Prediction 55.58%1.80fair odd
EV -3.30%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -4.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.48%55.73%55.60%58.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.701.701.7462.11%58.98%58.82%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Round Rock Express (Visit)

Prediction 44.42%2.25fair odd
EV +1.28%
Edge +0.563%
Kelly +1.00%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.39%44.27%44.40%46.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.102.102.2850.00%47.57%47.62%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Durham Bulls (Local): 55.58%; Round Rock Express (Visit): 44.42%. For Round Rock Express (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.25. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.28, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.28%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -10.52%E -6.53%K -17.25%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV +1.28%E +0.563%K +1.00%G +0.013%6.0%2026-05-09 18:00
Caesars🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -6.07%E -3.59%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.49%E -2.09%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-09 18:07
FanDuel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -5.52%E -3.25%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -5.82%E -2.75%K -5.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 18:14
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.96%E -2.90%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.71%E -3.20%K -6.10%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-09 18:04
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.19%E -4.30%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.71%E -3.20%K -6.10%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-09 20:34
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.19%E -4.30%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.71%E -3.20%K -6.10%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-09 21:19
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -3.30%E -1.89%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -8.93%E -4.36%K -8.51%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 18:19
1xBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%EV -3.85%E -2.23%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.13%EV -10.27%E -5.08%K -10.06%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 18:19
BetRivers🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -3.30%E -1.89%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -11.15%E -5.58%K -11.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-09 16:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.