The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Durham Bulls v Memphis Redbirds

Kickoff: 2026-08-11 22:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Durham Bulls (Local)

Prediction 49.83%2.01fair odd
EV +3.66%
Edge +1.76%
Kelly +3.38%
Growth +0.124%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.68%49.51%49.67%53.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.891.872.0856.50%52.88%53.48%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Memphis Redbirds (Visit)

Prediction 50.17%1.99fair odd
EV +0.332%
Edge +0.166%
Kelly +0.332%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.95%50.49%50.33%55.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.851.852.0059.52%54.13%54.20%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Durham Bulls (Local): 49.83%; Memphis Redbirds (Visit): 50.17%. For Durham Bulls (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.01. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.08, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.66%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.68%EV +3.66%E +1.76%K +3.38%G +0.124%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.32%EV -15.72%E -9.36%K -23.12%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-11 14:54
1xBet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.18%EV -1.83%E -0.927%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.82%EV -11.71%E -6.65%K -15.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-11 22:10
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.34%EV -4.82%E -2.52%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.66%EV -6.69%E -3.60%K -7.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-11 22:10
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -4.82%E -2.52%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -8.20%E -4.48%K -9.88%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 22:10
Caesars🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -8.80%E -4.81%K -10.61%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -4.18%E -2.19%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 22:11
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -8.80%E -4.81%K -10.61%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -4.18%E -2.19%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 22:03
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -8.80%E -4.81%K -10.61%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -8.20%E -4.48%K -9.88%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-11 22:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -11.79%E -6.66%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV +0.332%E +0.166%K +0.332%G +0.001%6.5%2026-08-11 22:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.