The School of Odds
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Durham Bulls v Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Kickoff: 2026-04-01 22:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Durham Bulls (Local)

Prediction 46.06%2.17fair odd
EV +1.33%
Edge +0.605%
Kelly +1.11%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.26%45.75%46.20%48.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.022.002.2052.36%49.44%50.00%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Visit)

Prediction 53.94%1.85fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.705%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.07%54.25%53.80%57.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.731.731.8362.11%57.72%57.64%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Durham Bulls (Local): 46.06%; Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Visit): 53.94%. For Durham Bulls (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.17. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.33%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV +1.33%E +0.605%K +1.11%G +0.015%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -13.16%E -8.17%K -21.57%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-01 22:30
Caesars🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -3.27%E -1.56%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -7.76%E -4.54%K -10.93%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-01 22:30
FanDuel🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -6.04%E -2.96%K -5.81%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.68%EV -5.07%E -2.88%K -6.66%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-01 22:25
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.88%E -3.94%K -7.88%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.53%E -2.56%K -5.88%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-01 22:15
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -7.88%E -3.94%K -7.88%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -7.76%E -4.54%K -10.93%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-01 22:24
1xBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.75%EV -8.80%E -4.45%K -8.98%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.25%EV -9.92%E -5.94%K -14.81%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-01 22:34
BetOnline.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -10.18%E -5.22%K -10.72%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -2.91%E -1.62%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-01 22:34
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -12.03%E -6.30%K -13.22%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -1.29%E -0.705%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-01 22:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.