The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Durham Bulls v Gwinnett Stripers

Kickoff: 2026-07-04 22:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Durham Bulls (Local)

Prediction 54.43%1.84fair odd
EV +0.700%
Edge +0.378%
Kelly +0.823%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%54.04%54.41%56.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.761.741.8559.88%56.94%57.47%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gwinnett Stripers (Visit)

Prediction 45.57%2.19fair odd
EV -1.12%
Edge -0.515%
Kelly -0.956%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.49%45.96%45.59%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.012.052.1754.05%49.78%48.78%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Durham Bulls (Local): 54.43%; Gwinnett Stripers (Visit): 45.57%. For Durham Bulls (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.84. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.700%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV +0.700%E +0.378%K +0.823%G +0.006%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -15.70%E -8.49%K -18.47%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-04 15:10
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -0.389%E -0.213%K -0.469%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -12.97%E -6.79%K -14.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-04 22:39
1xBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.34%EV -1.48%E -0.816%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.66%EV -12.97%E -6.79%K -14.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-04 22:40
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.29%E -3.04%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.59%E -3.21%K -6.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-04 22:35
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.29%E -3.04%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.59%E -3.21%K -6.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-04 22:40
FanDuel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -5.22%E -2.51%K -4.83%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-04 22:40
Betway🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -8.01%E -4.74%K -11.61%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -6.59%E -3.21%K -6.27%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-04 22:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -9.10%E -5.45%K -13.58%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV -1.12%E -0.515%K -0.956%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-04 22:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.