The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Charlotte Knights v Nashville Sounds

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Charlotte Knights (Local)

Prediction 54.52%1.83fair odd
EV +9.05%
Edge +4.52%
Kelly +9.05%
Growth +0.819%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.38%53.65%54.97%57.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.801.772.0060.61%55.56%56.50%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nashville Sounds (Visit)

Prediction 45.48%2.20fair odd
EV +0.500%
Edge +0.226%
Kelly +0.413%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.75%46.35%45.03%53.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.972.002.2157.80%50.76%50.00%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Charlotte Knights (Local): 54.52%; Nashville Sounds (Visit): 45.48%. For Charlotte Knights (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.83. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.05%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV +9.05%E +4.52%K +9.05%G +0.819%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -20.87%E -12.00%K -28.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 14:45
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV +9.05%E +4.52%K +9.05%G +0.819%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -21.33%E -12.33%K -29.22%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-12 13:04
Bovada1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV +1.96%E +1.05%K +2.25%G +0.044%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -14.96%E -8.00%K -17.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-12 16:53
1xBet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.74%EV -1.86%E -1.03%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%EV -12.23%E -6.34%K -13.15%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-12 16:54
Caesars1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -3.49%E -1.97%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -9.05%E -4.52%K -9.05%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-12 16:28
FanDuel1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.76%E -3.95%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.50%E -2.14%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-12 16:50
theScore Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.76%E -3.95%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.50%E -2.14%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-12 16:39
Betway1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -7.85%E -4.65%K -11.38%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -6.78%E -3.31%K -6.45%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-12 16:39
BetOnline.ag1.65I 60.61%NM 57.25%EV -10.03%E -6.08%K -15.44%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.75%EV +0.500%E +0.226%K +0.413%G +0.002%5.9%2026-07-12 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.