The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Charlotte Knights v Memphis Redbirds

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Charlotte Knights (Local)

Prediction 46.13%2.17fair odd
EV +4.25%
Edge +1.88%
Kelly +3.37%
Growth +0.143%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.75%46.27%46.13%51.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.832.112.202.2654.64%47.49%45.45%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Memphis Redbirds (Visit)

Prediction 53.87%1.86fair odd
EV +2.89%
Edge +1.52%
Kelly +3.18%
Growth +0.092%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.93%53.73%53.87%58.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.701.621.9162.11%58.97%61.73%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Charlotte Knights (Local): 46.13%; Memphis Redbirds (Visit): 53.87%. For Charlotte Knights (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.17. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.26, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.25%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.75%EV +4.25%E +1.88%K +3.37%G +0.143%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.25%EV -12.73%E -7.86%K -20.53%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 16:50
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV +1.48%E +0.674%K +1.24%G +0.018%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -12.73%E -7.86%K -20.53%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 15:04
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV +1.48%E +0.674%K +1.24%G +0.018%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -12.73%E -7.86%K -20.53%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 15:19
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV +1.48%E +0.674%K +1.24%G +0.018%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -13.27%E -8.24%K -21.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 16:50
1xBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV +0.560%E +0.257%K +0.475%G +0.003%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -12.73%E -7.86%K -20.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 14:45
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -13.74%E -7.35%K -15.79%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV +0.740%E +0.395%K +0.850%G +0.006%7.0%2026-04-12 16:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -15.58%E -8.52%K -18.78%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV +2.89%E +1.52%K +3.18%G +0.092%7.0%2026-04-12 17:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.