The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Buffalo Bisons v Norfolk Tides

Kickoff: 2026-08-04 22:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Buffalo Bisons (Local)

Prediction 57.99%1.72fair odd
EV -5.48%
Edge -3.36%
Kelly -8.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.59%58.06%57.96%58.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.621.621.6362.50%61.86%61.73%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Norfolk Tides (Visit)

Prediction 42.01%2.38fair odd
EV -3.37%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -2.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.33%41.94%42.04%42.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.232.202.3045.45%44.93%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Buffalo Bisons (Local): 57.99%; Norfolk Tides (Visit): 42.01%. For Norfolk Tides (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.38. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.30, with an expected value of -3.37%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel1.63I 61.35%NM 57.88%EV -5.48%E -3.36%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.12%EV -5.89%E -2.63%K -4.75%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 13:39
Caesars1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.06%E -3.74%K -9.78%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.37%E -1.46%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 13:41
theScore Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.06%E -3.74%K -9.78%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.47%E -2.43%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-04 13:40
BetOnline.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -6.06%E -3.74%K -9.78%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.97%EV -5.89%E -2.63%K -4.75%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-04 14:35
William Hill1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.06%E -3.74%K -9.78%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.57%E -3.44%K -6.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-04 13:55
Bovada1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.06%E -3.74%K -9.78%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.57%E -3.44%K -6.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-04 14:46
1xBet1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.64%E -4.13%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.57%E -3.44%K -6.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-04 13:45
Betway1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.64%E -4.13%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.57%E -3.44%K -6.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-04 19:45
BetRivers1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.22%E -4.51%K -12.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.57%E -3.44%K -6.31%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-04 15:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.