The School of Odds
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Western Bulldogs v Richmond Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 04:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Western Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -64.52%
Kelly -181.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.76%0.00%0.00%67.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.451.421.5571.43%69.01%70.42%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Richmond Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -34.48%
Kelly -52.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.56%0.00%0.00%39.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.702.772.9041.67%37.04%36.04%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Western Bulldogs (Local): 0.00%; Richmond Tigers (Visit): 0.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%6.2%2026-08-22 03:55
TABtouch🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%6.2%2026-08-22 04:04
Bet Right🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%6.8%2026-08-22 04:04
Unibet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%6.2%2026-08-21 21:49
Dabble (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%5.5%2026-08-22 02:40
Neds🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%6.1%2026-08-22 02:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%6.1%2026-08-22 02:24
SportsBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%6.0%2026-08-22 03:14
PlayUp🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%5.9%2026-08-22 02:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%7.8%2026-08-22 04:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%3.7%2026-08-22 04:00