Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Western Bulldogs v Essendon Bombers

Kickoff: 2026-10-09 08:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Western Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -88.50%
Kelly -769.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.96%0.00%0.00%86.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.091.121.121.1391.74%89.42%89.29%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Essendon Bombers (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -14.29%
Kelly -16.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.47%0.00%0.00%17.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.505.985.807.0018.18%16.74%17.24%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Western Bulldogs (Local): 0.00%; Essendon Bombers (Visit): 0.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%5.9%2026-10-05 03:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%6.7%2026-10-05 14:10
Bet Right🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%6.0%2026-10-05 06:14
TABtouch🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.82%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%6.5%2026-10-05 06:10
Unibet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.82%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%6.5%2026-10-05 06:15
TAB🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%6.0%2026-10-05 08:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 83.20%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.80%12.3%2026-10-05 15:10