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Sydney Swans v Essendon Bombers

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 02:33 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Sydney Swans (Local)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -90.91%
Kelly -1000.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.53%0.00%0.00%88.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.081.081.1094.34%92.76%92.59%90.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Essendon Bombers (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -12.50%
Kelly -14.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.80%0.00%0.00%14.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.307.258.0015.38%13.70%13.79%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Swans (Local): 0.00%; Essendon Bombers (Visit): 0.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bet Right🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%6.3%2026-08-23 02:09
SportsBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%5.9%2026-08-23 00:35
PlayUp🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%5.9%2026-08-23 00:45
TAB🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%6.9%2026-08-22 23:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%6.9%2026-08-23 02:09
Unibet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%6.9%2026-08-23 02:00
TABtouch🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%6.9%2026-08-23 02:00
Neds🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%6.0%2026-08-23 01:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%6.0%2026-08-23 01:44
Dabble (AU)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.62%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%7.7%2026-08-23 00:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 76.34%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.66%19.1%2026-08-23 02:30