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Sydney Swans v Carlton Blues

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 04:04 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Sydney Swans (Local)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -36.10%
Kelly -56.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.05%0.00%0.00%40.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.612.702.7742.55%38.27%37.04%36.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Carlton Blues (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -63.29%
Kelly -172.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.80%0.00%0.00%65.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.481.451.5869.93%67.72%68.97%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Swans (Local): 0.00%; Carlton Blues (Visit): 0.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 34.05%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.95%6.0%2026-10-11 04:00
TAB🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%6.0%2026-10-11 03:55
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%6.0%2026-10-11 03:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%6.0%2026-10-11 03:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%7.0%2026-10-11 04:00
Bet Right🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%5.1%2026-10-11 04:00
TABtouch🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%6.7%2026-10-11 02:01
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%6.7%2026-10-11 02:00
Dabble (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%5.8%2026-10-10 14:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.64%1.48I 67.57%NM 66.36%1.8%2026-10-11 04:00