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North Melbourne Kangaroos v Sydney Swans

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 02:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -96.15%
Kelly -2500.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.89%0.00%0.00%93.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.031.041.0499.01%97.19%96.15%96.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sydney Swans (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -7.14%
Kelly -7.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 14.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.73%0.00%0.00%10.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.2510.8610.0014.0010.81%9.21%10.00%7.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local): 0.00%; Sydney Swans (Visit): 0.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%6.2%2026-10-04 01:45
Dabble (AU)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%6.2%2026-10-04 01:20
Neds🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.36%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.64%6.4%2026-10-04 01:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.36%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.64%6.4%2026-10-04 01:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.89%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.11%7.0%2026-10-04 01:35
Bet Right🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%6.2%2026-10-04 01:15
TAB🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%6.2%2026-10-04 01:20
Unibet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%7.3%2026-10-04 01:55
TABtouch🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%7.3%2026-10-04 02:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.05I 95.24%NM 92.78%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.22%2.6%2026-10-04 01:30