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Melbourne Demons v Carlton Blues

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 03:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Melbourne Demons (Local)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -72.99%
Kelly -270.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.65%0.00%0.00%70.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.351.351.3774.63%73.95%74.07%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Carlton Blues (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -31.25%
Kelly -45.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.52%0.00%0.00%31.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.113.153.2033.33%32.17%31.75%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne Demons (Local): 0.00%; Carlton Blues (Visit): 0.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%6.3%2026-09-18 00:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%6.9%2026-09-16 00:45
TABtouch🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%6.9%2026-09-18 00:15
Dabble (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%5.3%2026-09-16 00:30
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%5.8%2026-09-16 22:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%5.8%2026-09-16 22:35
Bet Right🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%6.3%2026-09-18 09:00
TAB🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%5.9%2026-09-14 06:00
SportsBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.35%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.65%6.1%2026-09-17 08:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 65.01%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.99%9.1%2026-09-18 15:10