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Melbourne Demons v Brisbane Lions

Kickoff: 2026-08-30 03:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Melbourne Demons (Local)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -55.87%
Kelly -126.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.39%0.00%0.00%54.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.761.771.7958.14%56.75%56.50%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brisbane Lions (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -47.62%
Kelly -90.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.03%0.00%0.00%47.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.032.022.1051.02%49.31%49.50%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne Demons (Local): 0.00%; Brisbane Lions (Visit): 0.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.52%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.48%6.4%2026-08-30 00:10
TABtouch🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.39%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.61%6.6%2026-08-30 00:10
PlayUp🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%6.2%2026-08-29 20:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.41%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.59%7.2%2026-08-30 00:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%6.0%2026-08-30 01:45
Neds🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%6.0%2026-08-30 01:45
Dabble (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%5.2%2026-08-30 02:55
TAB🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%5.9%2026-08-30 02:45
SportsBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%5.8%2026-08-30 02:24
Bet Right🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%5.8%2026-08-30 02:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.00%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.00%2.0%2026-08-30 03:00