The School of Odds
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Hawthorn Hawks v Western Bulldogs

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 03:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Hawthorn Hawks (Local)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -60.61%
Kelly -153.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.14%0.00%0.00%62.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.591.591.6566.23%63.05%62.89%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Western Bulldogs (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -40.00%
Kelly -66.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.66%0.00%0.00%42.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.312.332.5045.45%43.27%42.92%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hawthorn Hawks (Local): 0.00%; Western Bulldogs (Visit): 0.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
TAB🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%6.1%2026-09-07 06:55
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%6.1%2026-09-08 22:10
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%5.1%2026-09-09 01:14
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%6.9%2026-09-09 01:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%6.9%2026-09-09 01:14
Dabble (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%5.8%2026-09-08 07:50
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.74%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.26%6.6%2026-09-08 20:14
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.90%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%7.0%2026-09-08 20:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%7.5%2026-09-09 14:45
SportsBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%6.2%2026-09-07 04:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 59.30%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%11.7%2026-09-08 20:15