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Hawthorn Hawks v Brisbane Lions

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 02:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Hawthorn Hawks (Local)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -61.73%
Kelly -161.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.14%0.00%0.00%63.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.541.541.6267.11%64.79%64.94%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brisbane Lions (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -38.91%
Kelly -63.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.70%0.00%0.00%41.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.442.452.5744.44%41.04%40.82%38.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hawthorn Hawks (Local): 0.00%; Brisbane Lions (Visit): 0.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%6.2%2026-10-10 23:55
Dabble (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%5.8%2026-10-10 14:00
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-10-11 00:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-10-11 00:40
Bet Right🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%5.8%2026-10-11 02:04
TAB🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%6.2%2026-10-11 02:00
Unibet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.00%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.00%6.1%2026-10-11 02:00
TABtouch🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.16%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84%6.5%2026-10-11 02:01
SportsBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.30%2.57I 38.91%NM 36.70%6.0%2026-10-11 01:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 58.97%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.03%1.5%2026-10-11 01:55