Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

GWS GIANTS v Essendon Bombers

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 03:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

GWS GIANTS (Local)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -58.48%
Kelly -140.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.12%0.00%0.00%60.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.651.641.7164.10%60.65%60.98%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Essendon Bombers (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -41.84%
Kelly -71.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.49%0.00%0.00%44.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.202.202.3947.62%45.35%45.45%41.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: GWS GIANTS (Local): 0.00%; Essendon Bombers (Visit): 0.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bet Right🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%6.1%2026-10-03 02:20
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%6.4%2026-10-03 02:40
Dabble (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%6.0%2026-10-03 02:05
Neds🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%5.4%2026-10-03 02:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%5.4%2026-10-03 02:40
TABtouch🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%6.8%2026-10-03 02:45
Unibet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%6.8%2026-10-03 02:45
SportsBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.51%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.49%5.9%2026-10-03 03:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 56.86%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.14%1.7%2026-10-03 02:55