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Geelong Cats v Hawthorn Hawks

Kickoff: 2026-09-24 09:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Geelong Cats (Local)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -62.50%
Kelly -166.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.97%0.00%0.00%63.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.551.551.6067.57%64.42%64.52%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hawthorn Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -38.46%
Kelly -62.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.27%0.00%0.00%41.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.402.402.6043.48%41.72%41.67%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Geelong Cats (Local): 0.00%; Hawthorn Hawks (Visit): 0.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Dabble (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%6.0%2026-09-24 05:35
Unibet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.59%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.41%6.2%2026-09-24 09:05
TABtouch🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.74%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.26%6.6%2026-09-24 09:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%7.2%2026-09-24 05:25
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%6.2%2026-09-24 09:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%6.2%2026-09-24 09:00
SportsBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.01%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.99%6.4%2026-09-24 08:45
Bet Right🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-09-24 09:00
TAB🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%6.0%2026-09-24 09:03
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 62.50%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.50%2.6%2026-09-24 09:05