Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fremantle Dockers v Essendon Bombers

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 07:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Fremantle Dockers (Local)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -79.37%
Kelly -384.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.10%0.00%0.00%82.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.171.171.2686.96%85.25%85.84%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Essendon Bombers (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -19.05%
Kelly -23.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.97%0.00%0.00%24.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.734.785.2526.32%21.14%20.94%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fremantle Dockers (Local): 0.00%; Essendon Bombers (Visit): 0.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
TAB🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%5.7%2026-09-13 06:40
SportsBet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%6.0%2026-09-13 00:19
Bet Right🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%6.5%2026-09-13 00:25
TABtouch🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%7.2%2026-09-13 02:30
Unibet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%7.2%2026-09-13 02:30
Neds🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%7.0%2026-09-13 01:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%7.0%2026-09-13 01:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%7.0%2026-09-13 00:51
Dabble (AU)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%6.0%2026-09-12 14:20
PlayUp🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%6.2%2026-09-09 00:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%1.0%2026-09-13 07:00