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Essendon Bombers v Richmond Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-08-30 09:19 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Essendon Bombers (Local)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -47.62%
Kelly -90.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.03%0.00%0.00%47.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.042.052.1051.02%49.14%48.78%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Richmond Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -55.56%
Kelly -125.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.13%0.00%0.00%54.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.761.761.8058.14%56.72%56.82%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Essendon Bombers (Local): 0.00%; Richmond Tigers (Visit): 0.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%5.8%2026-08-30 08:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%5.8%2026-08-30 08:35
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%5.3%2026-08-30 09:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%5.9%2026-08-30 08:35
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%5.9%2026-08-30 08:35
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%5.9%2026-08-30 08:30
Dabble (AU)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%6.0%2026-08-29 22:35
TAB🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-08-30 09:09
Unibet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%6.3%2026-08-30 03:10
TABtouch🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%6.6%2026-08-30 03:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.28%0.9%2026-08-30 09:15