The School of Odds
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Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide Power

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 06:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Brisbane Lions (Local)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -59.52%
Kelly -147.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.14%0.00%0.00%59.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.611.601.6863.69%62.15%62.50%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Port Adelaide Power (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -42.55%
Kelly -74.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.05%0.00%0.00%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.292.302.3546.51%43.76%43.48%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brisbane Lions (Local): 0.00%; Port Adelaide Power (Visit): 0.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
TAB🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%6.0%2026-10-17 04:20
Dabble (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%5.2%2026-10-15 22:25
picklebet_au🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%6.2%2026-10-17 05:35
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%5.1%2026-10-17 06:00
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%6.0%2026-10-17 00:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%6.0%2026-10-17 00:50
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%6.0%2026-10-17 06:00
Unibet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%6.0%2026-10-17 06:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%6.9%2026-10-17 01:00
SportsBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%6.2%2026-10-17 06:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.10%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.90%2.7%2026-10-17 05:30