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Brisbane Lions v GWS GIANTS

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 08:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Brisbane Lions (Local)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -92.59%
Kelly -1250.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
86.74%0.00%0.00%90.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.041.061.071.0896.15%93.98%93.46%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

GWS GIANTS (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -10.00%
Kelly -11.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.42%0.00%0.00%13.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.207.7510.0014.29%12.20%12.90%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brisbane Lions (Local): 0.00%; GWS GIANTS (Visit): 0.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Neds🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.03%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%6.4%2026-09-02 01:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.03%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%6.4%2026-09-02 01:54
Dabble (AU)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%6.0%2026-09-01 02:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%6.8%2026-09-04 09:10
TABtouch🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%7.7%2026-09-04 09:09
Unibet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%7.7%2026-09-04 09:10
Bet Right🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%4.9%2026-09-03 12:29
SportsBet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%6.1%2026-09-02 05:14
TAB🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%6.2%2026-09-04 09:10
PlayUp🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%6.2%2026-09-04 11:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 87.17%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.83%11.4%2026-09-04 10:20