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Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast Suns

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 07:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Brisbane Lions (Local)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -64.52%
Kelly -181.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.76%0.00%0.00%64.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.491.491.5569.44%66.91%67.11%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gold Coast Suns (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -37.17%
Kelly -59.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.02%0.00%0.00%39.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.542.502.6941.67%39.32%40.00%37.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brisbane Lions (Local): 0.00%; Gold Coast Suns (Visit): 0.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%6.2%2026-10-03 06:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%6.2%2026-10-03 06:10
Bet Right🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%5.8%2026-10-03 06:15
TAB🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%5.8%2026-10-03 05:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%7.1%2026-10-03 06:50
Dabble (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%6.0%2026-10-03 06:05
SportsBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.98%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.02%6.1%2026-10-03 05:50
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%6.7%2026-10-03 06:50
TABtouch🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%7.2%2026-10-03 06:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 64.32%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.68%2.3%2026-10-03 07:01