The School of Odds
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Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows

Kickoff: 2026-09-20 07:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Brisbane Lions (Local)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -68.97%
Kelly -222.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.20%0.00%0.00%67.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.421.421.4571.43%70.26%70.42%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Adelaide Crows (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -34.72%
Kelly -53.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.71%0.00%0.00%35.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.782.802.8838.46%36.00%35.71%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brisbane Lions (Local): 0.00%; Adelaide Crows (Visit): 0.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
TAB🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%6.0%2026-09-20 06:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%7.4%2026-09-17 16:55
Dabble (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%6.5%2026-09-20 00:34
Neds🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%6.1%2026-09-20 00:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%6.1%2026-09-20 00:59
Bet Right🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%6.1%2026-09-20 00:59
SportsBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.82%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.18%6.1%2026-09-20 01:59
TABtouch🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%6.2%2026-09-20 00:59
Unibet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%6.2%2026-09-20 00:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63%0.5%2026-09-20 07:04