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Adelaide Crows v Geelong Cats

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 05:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Adelaide Crows (Local)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -62.89%
Kelly -169.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.28%0.00%0.00%60.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.581.581.5963.69%63.29%63.29%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Geelong Cats (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -42.02%
Kelly -72.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.90%0.00%0.00%40.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.332.332.3843.48%42.99%43.01%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adelaide Crows (Local): 0.00%; Geelong Cats (Visit): 0.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.34%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.66%6.0%2026-09-07 05:15
Bet Right🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%5.3%2026-09-07 12:55
TAB🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%5.8%2026-09-07 04:04
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%5.8%2026-09-08 00:34
Unibet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.59%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.41%6.2%2026-09-08 20:20
Neds🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%6.8%2026-09-07 23:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%6.8%2026-09-07 23:50
Dabble (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%6.8%2026-09-08 02:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%6.8%2026-09-09 16:20
TABtouch🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.74%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.26%6.6%2026-09-08 20:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 59.03%2.06I 48.54%NM 40.97%18.5%2026-09-09 14:40