The School of Odds
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Western Bulldogs v West Coast Eagles

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 03:12 UTC

Final: Western Bulldogs 86–70 West Coast Eagles

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Western Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 84.48%1.18fair odd
EV -4.54%
Edge -4.01%
Kelly -34.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.58%84.73%84.15%86.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.111.111.1395.24%90.09%90.09%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

West Coast Eagles (Visit)

Prediction 15.52%6.44fair odd
EV +10.18%
Edge +1.43%
Kelly +1.67%
Growth +0.170%

assuming max odds 7.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.10%15.27%15.85%16.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.186.007.1018.18%16.17%16.67%14.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Western Bulldogs (Local): 84.48%; West Coast Eagles (Visit): 15.52%. For West Coast Eagles (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.44. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.18%.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.90%EV -9.61%E -8.98%K -137.21%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.10%EV +10.18%E +1.43%K +1.67%G +0.170%7.5%2026-07-12 01:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -7.07%E -6.43%K -70.71%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +8.63%E +1.23%K +1.44%G +0.124%5.2%2026-07-12 03:09
TABtouch🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.23%E -5.61%K -56.60%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +0.872%E +0.134%K +0.158%G +0.001%5.5%2026-07-12 01:19
Grosvenor🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.23%E -5.61%K -56.60%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +0.872%E +0.134%K +0.158%G +0.001%5.5%2026-07-12 01:19
Casumo🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.23%E -5.61%K -56.60%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +0.872%E +0.134%K +0.158%G +0.001%5.5%2026-07-12 01:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.23%E -5.61%K -56.60%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +0.872%E +0.134%K +0.158%G +0.001%5.5%2026-07-12 01:19
BetUS🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.23%E -5.61%K -56.60%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +0.872%E +0.134%K +0.158%G +0.001%5.5%2026-07-06 16:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -8.76%E -8.11%K -109.50%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV +0.872%E +0.134%K +0.158%G +0.001%8.0%2026-07-11 01:59
SportsBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -6.23%E -5.61%K -56.60%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -3.01%E -0.481%K -0.573%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-12 02:54
TAB🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.38%E -4.80%K -44.84%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -3.78%E -0.610%K -0.728%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-12 03:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.38%E -4.80%K -44.84%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -3.78%E -0.610%K -0.728%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-12 03:00
Neds🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.54%E -4.01%K -34.89%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -6.89%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-12 02:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.54%E -4.01%K -34.89%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -6.89%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-12 02:14
Coolbet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.54%E -4.01%K -34.89%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -6.89%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-11 03:30
PlayUp🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.54%E -4.01%K -34.89%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -6.89%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-12 02:49
Paddy Power🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.38%E -4.80%K -44.84%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -6.89%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 02:54
Coral🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.23%E -5.61%K -56.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -6.89%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-11 02:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.23%E -5.61%K -56.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -6.89%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-11 02:34
Everygame🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -7.07%E -6.43%K -70.71%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -6.89%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-12 03:09
Pinnacle🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.83%EV -4.54%E -4.01%K -34.89%G +0.000%5.86I 17.06%NM 16.17%EV -9.06%E -1.55%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-12 03:05
Unibet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.94%EV -6.23%E -5.61%K -56.60%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.06%EV -9.99%E -1.72%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-12 01:24
Bet Right🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -4.54%E -4.01%K -34.89%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -10.77%E -1.87%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-12 03:09
DraftKings🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.82%EV -6.23%E -5.61%K -56.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.18%EV -10.77%E -1.87%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 03:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 83.97%EV -11.29%E -10.76%K -225.89%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -14.65%E -2.66%K -3.25%G +0.000%13.4%2026-07-11 02:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 87.53%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.47%0.2%2026-07-12 03:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 87.53%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.47%0.2%2026-07-12 03:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 87.62%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.38%1.0%2026-07-12 03:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.54%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72%125.00I 0.80%NM 0.74%8.5%2026-07-12 03:10
NordicBet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.54%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72%125.00I 0.80%NM 0.74%8.5%2026-07-12 03:10
LeoVegas🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.53%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.56%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.91%9.5%2026-07-11 05:09

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