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Western Bulldogs v Sydney Swans
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Western Bulldogs (Local)
Prediction 33.31%3.00fair odd
EV +19.91%
Edge +5.53%
Kelly +7.66%
Growth +1.52%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.23%32.74%33.50%35.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.872.803.6038.17%34.89%35.71%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sydney Swans (Visit)
Prediction 66.69%1.50fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -4.17%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.47
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.75%67.26%66.50%73.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.411.431.4778.13%71.15%69.93%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Western Bulldogs (Local): 33.31%; Sydney Swans (Visit): 66.69%. For Western Bulldogs (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.00. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +19.91%.
Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV +19.91%E +5.53%K +7.66%G +1.52% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -14.63%E -11.43%K -52.26%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-22 15:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV +6.58%E +2.06%K +2.99%G +0.197% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -11.30%E -8.50%K -34.24%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 05:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV +6.58%E +2.06%K +2.99%G +0.197% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -11.30%E -8.50%K -34.24%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 05:39 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV +6.58%E +2.06%K +2.99%G +0.197% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -13.30%E -10.23%K -44.33%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-23 05:44 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -0.078%E -0.026%K -0.039%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.96%E -5.77%K -20.96%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.40%EV -3.41%E -1.18%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.60%EV -7.30%E -5.25%K -18.71%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 09:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -5.07%E -1.78%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -3.30%E -2.27%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-23 09:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -5.07%E -1.78%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.63%E -3.24%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 09:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -5.07%E -1.78%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -5.96%E -4.23%K -14.55%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 09:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.83I 35.34%NM 33.72%EV -5.74%E -2.03%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.28%EV -3.96%E -2.75%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 09:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -6.74%E -2.41%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.63%E -3.24%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 09:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -6.74%E -2.41%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.63%E -3.24%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -6.74%E -2.41%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.63%E -3.24%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -6.74%E -2.41%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.63%E -3.24%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.74%E -2.41%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.30%E -3.73%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-23 09:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -6.74%E -2.41%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -7.96%E -5.77%K -20.96%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-23 08:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 33.57%EV -7.74%E -2.79%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.43%EV -6.63%E -4.74%K -16.58%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-23 08:54 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -8.40%E -3.06%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.30%E -2.27%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 09:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -8.40%E -3.06%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.30%E -2.27%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 09:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.40%E -3.06%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.96%E -2.75%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 09:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -8.40%E -3.06%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -4.63%E -3.24%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 09:15 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.40%E -3.06%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.63%E -4.74%K -16.58%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-23 09:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -10.07%E -3.73%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -1.96%E -1.33%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 09:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -10.07%E -3.73%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -2.63%E -1.80%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-23 09:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -10.07%E -3.73%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -2.63%E -1.80%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-23 09:19 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 33.50%EV -12.73%E -4.86%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 66.50%EV -11.97%E -9.06%K -37.39%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-04-23 09:28 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.85% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 65.15% | 0.3% | 2026-04-23 09:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.32% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.68% | 0.4% | 2026-04-23 09:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99% | 0.6% | 2026-04-23 09:30 |