The School of Odds
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Western Bulldogs v Richmond Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-07-25 09:40 UTC

Final: Western Bulldogs 105–48 Richmond Tigers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Western Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 86.39%1.16fair odd
EV -4.10%
Edge -3.70%
Kelly -37.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.21%86.30%86.19%88.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.091.101.1197.09%91.42%90.91%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Richmond Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 13.61%7.35fair odd
EV +8.86%
Edge +1.11%
Kelly +1.27%
Growth +0.112%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.60%13.70%13.81%16.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.786.608.0018.18%14.74%15.15%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Western Bulldogs (Local): 86.39%; Richmond Tigers (Visit): 13.61%. For Richmond Tigers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.35. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.86%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Neds🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -6.70%E -6.20%K -83.70%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +8.86%E +1.11%K +1.27%G +0.112%5.1%2026-07-22 02:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -6.70%E -6.20%K -83.70%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +8.86%E +1.11%K +1.27%G +0.112%5.1%2026-07-22 02:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -9.29%E -8.85%K -185.75%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV +8.86%E +1.11%K +1.27%G +0.112%7.7%2026-07-25 08:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.90%EV -8.42%E -7.95%K -140.39%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 12.10%EV +4.78%E +0.620%K +0.713%G +0.034%7.3%2026-07-25 09:00
TAB🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -5.83%E -5.35%K -64.80%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +2.05%E +0.274%K +0.316%G +0.006%5.1%2026-07-25 09:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -5.83%E -5.35%K -64.80%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +2.05%E +0.274%K +0.316%G +0.006%5.1%2026-07-25 08:30
DraftKings🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.70%E -6.20%K -83.70%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV +2.05%E +0.274%K +0.316%G +0.006%5.9%2026-07-25 09:30
Dabble (AU)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.10%E -3.70%K -37.31%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -4.75%E -0.679%K -0.792%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-25 05:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.97%E -4.52%K -49.68%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.75%E -0.679%K -0.792%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-25 09:35
Bet Right🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.97%E -4.52%K -49.68%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.75%E -0.679%K -0.792%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-25 09:35
PlayUp🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.97%E -4.52%K -49.68%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.75%E -0.679%K -0.792%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-24 22:39
Pinnacle🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.95%EV -4.97%E -4.52%K -49.68%G +0.000%6.73I 14.86%NM 14.05%EV -8.42%E -1.25%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-25 09:35
Coolbet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -4.10%E -3.70%K -37.31%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV -8.83%E -1.32%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-25 09:35
Casumo🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.10%E -3.70%K -37.31%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -11.55%E -1.78%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-25 09:10
Grosvenor🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.10%E -3.70%K -37.31%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -11.55%E -1.78%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-25 09:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.10%E -3.70%K -37.31%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -11.55%E -1.78%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-25 09:10
TABtouch🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.10%E -3.70%K -37.31%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -11.55%E -1.78%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-25 09:10
Coral🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -4.97%E -4.52%K -49.68%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -11.55%E -1.78%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-25 03:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -4.97%E -4.52%K -49.68%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -11.55%E -1.78%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-25 03:35
Everygame🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -6.70%E -6.20%K -83.70%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -11.55%E -1.78%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-25 09:09
SportsBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.03%EV -4.97%E -4.52%K -49.68%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV -14.96%E -2.39%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-25 09:35
Paddy Power🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -4.10%E -3.70%K -37.31%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -18.36%E -3.06%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-25 09:30
Unibet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -4.10%E -3.70%K -37.31%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -18.36%E -3.06%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-25 09:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 85.35%EV -11.02%E -10.69%K -367.18%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.65%EV -18.36%E -3.06%K -3.67%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-25 07:18
NordicBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -4.10%E -3.70%K -37.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -25.16%E -4.57%K -5.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-25 08:34
Betsson🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -4.10%E -3.70%K -37.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -25.16%E -4.57%K -5.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-25 05:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 90.09%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91%0.9%2026-07-25 09:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 90.09%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91%0.9%2026-07-25 09:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 90.09%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91%0.9%2026-07-25 09:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.32%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.5%2026-07-25 08:20