Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne Kangaroos

2026-08-06 09:30 UTC — AFL

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Western Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 70.59%1.42fair odd
EV -4.00%
Edge -2.94%
Kelly -11.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.81%70.59%70.59%71.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.331.341.3680.00%75.28%74.63%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

North Melbourne Kangaroos (Visit)

Prediction 29.41%3.40fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -0.891%
Kelly -1.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.73%29.41%29.41%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.183.233.3033.33%31.50%31.01%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Paddy Power1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.00%E -2.94%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -11.76%E -3.92%K -5.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-30 03:54
SportsBet1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.71%E -3.49%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.41%E -1.36%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-30 03:54
Bet Right1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.71%E -3.49%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -5.88%E -1.84%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-30 04:24
Ladbrokes (AU)1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.12%E -4.60%K -18.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -2.94%E -0.891%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-30 04:19
Neds1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.12%E -4.60%K -18.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -2.94%E -0.891%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-30 04:19
NetBet (FR)1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -11.76%E -9.41%K -47.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.41%EV -11.76%E -3.92%K -5.88%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-30 04:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.23I 81.30%NM 68.05%2.62I 38.17%NM 31.95%19.5%2026-07-30 05:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.23I 81.30%NM 68.05%2.62I 38.17%NM 31.95%19.5%2026-07-30 05:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.23I 81.30%NM 68.05%2.62I 38.17%NM 31.95%19.5%2026-07-30 05:30