The School of Odds
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Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne Kangaroos

Kickoff: 2026-08-06 09:31 UTC

Final: Western Bulldogs 77–100 North Melbourne Kangaroos

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Western Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 64.88%1.54fair odd
EV -1.38%
Edge -0.906%
Kelly -2.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.65%64.99%64.93%70.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.451.481.5275.19%68.82%67.57%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

North Melbourne Kangaroos (Visit)

Prediction 35.12%2.85fair odd
EV +14.13%
Edge +4.35%
Kelly +6.28%
Growth +0.887%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.04%35.01%35.07%37.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.522.702.653.2539.68%36.97%37.74%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Western Bulldogs (Local): 64.88%; North Melbourne Kangaroos (Visit): 35.12%. For North Melbourne Kangaroos (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.85. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.13%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -13.71%E -10.30%K -41.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV +14.13%E +4.35%K +6.28%G +0.887%6.0%2026-08-05 13:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -13.71%E -10.30%K -41.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV +14.13%E +4.35%K +6.28%G +0.887%6.0%2026-08-05 14:00
BetUS🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -11.11%E -8.11%K -30.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV +10.62%E +3.37%K +4.94%G +0.524%4.7%2026-08-06 06:09
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -12.41%E -9.19%K -35.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV +1.84%E +0.634%K +0.968%G +0.018%8.6%2026-08-06 03:09
Dabble (AU)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -4.62%E -3.14%K -9.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -3.43%E -1.25%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-06 09:09
NordicBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -10.46%E -7.58%K -27.53%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -3.43%E -1.25%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-06 02:40
Betsson🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -10.46%E -7.58%K -27.53%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -3.43%E -1.25%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-06 02:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.94%EV -8.51%E -6.04%K -20.77%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.06%EV -4.13%E -1.51%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-06 09:25
Coolbet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.62%E -3.14%K -9.83%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -5.18%E -1.92%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-06 09:20
SportsBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.98%EV -5.92%E -4.08%K -13.15%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.02%EV -5.54%E -2.06%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-06 09:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.97%E -2.68%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.94%E -2.62%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-06 09:25
Casumo🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.97%E -2.68%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.94%E -2.62%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-06 09:25
TABtouch🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.97%E -2.68%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.94%E -2.62%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-06 09:25
Grosvenor🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.97%E -2.68%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.94%E -2.62%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-06 09:25
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -2.68%E -1.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -7.99%E -3.05%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-06 09:20
Bet Right🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.68%E -1.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.70%E -3.34%K -5.43%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-06 09:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.68%E -1.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.70%E -3.34%K -5.43%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-06 09:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -3.97%E -2.68%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.70%E -3.34%K -5.43%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-06 09:00
Pinnacle🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.75%EV -1.38%E -0.906%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.25%EV -10.10%E -3.95%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-06 09:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -1.38%E -0.906%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -10.45%E -4.10%K -6.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-06 09:25
Neds🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -1.38%E -0.906%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -10.45%E -4.10%K -6.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-06 09:25
TAB🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -1.38%E -0.906%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -10.45%E -4.10%K -6.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-06 09:20
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -1.38%E -0.906%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -10.45%E -4.10%K -6.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-06 09:25
DraftKings🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -2.03%E -1.34%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -10.45%E -4.10%K -6.74%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 09:25
Unibet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -3.97%E -2.68%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -10.45%E -4.10%K -6.74%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-06 09:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 65.12%EV -12.41%E -9.19%K -35.45%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 34.88%EV -11.51%E -4.57%K -7.57%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-06 09:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 63.08%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.92%0.3%2026-08-06 09:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 63.08%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.92%0.3%2026-08-06 09:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 63.08%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.92%0.3%2026-08-06 09:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.35%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.15%9.0%2026-08-06 02:40

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