The School of Odds
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Western Bulldogs v Fremantle Dockers

Kickoff: 2026-05-01 09:32 UTC

Final: Western Bulldogs 102–114 Fremantle Dockers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Western Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 32.64%3.06fair odd
EV +1.19%
Edge +0.383%
Kelly +0.565%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.80%32.78%32.78%35.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.832.803.1037.04%35.33%35.71%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fremantle Dockers (Visit)

Prediction 67.36%1.48fair odd
EV -0.982%
Edge -0.668%
Kelly -2.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.75%67.22%67.22%69.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.411.421.4777.52%70.72%70.42%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Western Bulldogs (Local): 32.64%; Fremantle Dockers (Visit): 67.36%. For Western Bulldogs (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.06. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.19%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV +1.19%E +0.383%K +0.565%G +0.007%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -7.04%E -5.10%K -18.54%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-01 00:05
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.08%E -0.693%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.70%E -4.07%K -14.24%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-01 09:28
SportsBet🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 32.18%EV -4.36%E -1.49%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 67.82%EV -6.37%E -4.58%K -16.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-01 08:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.34%E -1.84%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.35%E -3.06%K -10.36%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-01 08:40
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.34%E -1.84%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.35%E -3.06%K -10.36%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-01 08:40
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -5.34%E -1.84%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -7.04%E -5.10%K -18.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-01 00:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -5.34%E -1.84%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -7.04%E -5.10%K -18.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-01 00:03
Tipico (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -5.34%E -1.84%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -9.06%E -6.71%K -25.90%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-01 07:19
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -5.99%E -2.08%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.70%E -4.07%K -14.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-01 07:44
Pinnacle🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 33.26%EV -6.32%E -2.20%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.74%EV -3.68%E -2.57%K -8.55%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-01 09:29
Dabble (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -6.97%E -2.45%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -3.00%E -2.09%K -6.82%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-01 08:59
DraftKings🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -6.97%E -2.45%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 67.22%EV -6.37%E -4.58%K -16.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-01 09:30
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -8.61%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -3.68%E -2.57%K -8.55%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-01 09:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -8.61%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -3.68%E -2.57%K -8.55%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-01 09:30
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -8.61%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -3.68%E -2.57%K -8.55%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-01 09:30
TABtouch🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -8.61%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -3.68%E -2.57%K -8.55%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-01 09:29
Marathon Bet🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 33.57%EV -9.59%E -3.46%K -5.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.43%EV -5.70%E -4.07%K -14.24%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-01 09:19
NetBet (FR)🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 31.77%EV -9.59%E -3.46%K -5.42%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 68.23%EV -13.11%E -10.16%K -45.19%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-01 09:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -10.24%E -3.72%K -5.85%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -2.33%E -1.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-01 09:04
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -10.24%E -3.72%K -5.85%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -3.68%E -2.57%K -8.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-01 09:30
Everygame🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.24%E -3.72%K -5.85%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.70%E -4.07%K -14.24%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-01 09:09
TAB🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -11.87%E -4.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -0.982%E -0.668%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-01 09:30
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -11.87%E -4.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -0.982%E -0.668%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-01 09:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -11.87%E -4.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -0.982%E -0.668%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-01 09:15
Bet Right🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -11.87%E -4.40%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -0.982%E -0.668%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-01 09:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%0.5%2026-05-01 09:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52%0.6%2026-05-01 09:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52%0.6%2026-05-01 09:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.66%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.8%2026-05-01 09:30
Betsson🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.66%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.8%2026-05-01 09:30