The School of Odds
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Western Bulldogs v Essendon Bombers

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 09:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Western Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 93.67%1.07fair odd
EV -4.46%
Edge -4.37%
Kelly -222.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
92.17%93.73%93.67%96.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.011.011.02100.00%98.81%99.01%98.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Essendon Bombers (Visit)

Prediction 6.33%15.79fair odd
EV +96.30%
Edge +3.11%
Kelly +3.21%
Growth +3.09%

assuming max odds 31.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.16%6.27%6.33%7.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
12.0017.0515.5031.008.33%5.87%6.45%3.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Western Bulldogs (Local): 93.67%; Essendon Bombers (Visit): 6.33%. For Essendon Bombers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.79. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 31.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +96.30%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 96.84%EV -5.40%E -5.34%K -539.57%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 3.16%EV +96.30%E +3.11%K +3.21%G +3.09%2.2%2026-04-05 09:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 95.79%EV -5.40%E -5.34%K -539.57%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.21%EV +45.64%E +1.98%K +2.07%G +0.947%3.4%2026-04-03 07:45
Neds🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 95.79%EV -5.40%E -5.34%K -539.57%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.21%EV +45.64%E +1.98%K +2.07%G +0.947%3.4%2026-04-03 07:44
PlayUp🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -5.40%E -5.34%K -539.57%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +32.98%E +1.57%K +1.65%G +0.544%3.8%2026-04-05 08:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -5.40%E -5.34%K -539.57%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +32.98%E +1.57%K +1.65%G +0.544%3.8%2026-04-05 09:00
SportsBet🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 95.00%EV -6.33%E -6.33%K +0.000%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.00%EV +20.31%E +1.07%K +1.13%G +0.229%5.3%2026-04-05 09:19
Betr (AU)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -5.40%E -5.34%K -539.57%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +7.65%E +0.450%K +0.478%G +0.037%4.9%2026-04-01 00:04
Dabble (AU)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -5.40%E -5.34%K -539.57%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +7.65%E +0.450%K +0.478%G +0.037%4.9%2026-04-04 08:44
Coolbet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.23%EV -5.40%E -5.34%K -539.57%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.77%EV +4.48%E +0.272%K +0.289%G +0.013%5.1%2026-04-05 02:09
Bet Right🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -5.40%E -5.34%K -539.57%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV +1.32%E +0.082%K +0.088%G +0.001%5.3%2026-04-05 08:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.46%E -4.37%K -222.95%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -5.01%E -0.334%K -0.358%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-05 09:20
Casumo🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.46%E -4.37%K -222.95%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -5.01%E -0.334%K -0.358%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-05 09:20
TAB🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.40%E -5.34%K -539.57%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -5.01%E -0.334%K -0.358%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-05 09:10
Coral🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.40%E -5.34%K -539.57%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -5.01%E -0.334%K -0.358%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-02 00:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.40%E -5.34%K -539.57%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -5.01%E -0.334%K -0.358%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-02 01:49
NetBet (FR)🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 93.10%EV -6.33%E -6.33%K +0.000%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.90%EV -14.51%E -1.08%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-05 09:20
Grosvenor🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.46%E -4.37%K -222.95%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -24.01%E -2.00%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-05 09:20
TABtouch🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.46%E -4.37%K -222.95%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -24.01%E -2.00%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-05 09:20
Unibet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.46%E -4.37%K -222.95%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -24.01%E -2.00%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-05 09:15
DraftKings🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.46%E -4.37%K -222.95%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -24.01%E -2.00%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-05 09:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 96.19%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81%0.9%2026-04-05 08:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 96.19%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81%0.9%2026-04-05 08:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 96.19%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81%0.9%2026-04-05 09:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 90.00%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.91%10.0%2026-04-05 09:19
NordicBet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 90.00%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.91%10.0%2026-04-05 09:19