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Western Bulldogs v Collingwood Magpies

2026-08-29 09:40 UTC — AFL

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Western Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 49.19%2.03fair odd
EV -5.06%
Edge -2.62%
Kelly -5.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.94%49.19%49.19%49.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.891.921.931.9352.91%52.04%51.81%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Collingwood Magpies (Visit)

Prediction 50.81%1.97fair odd
EV -6.01%
Edge -3.25%
Kelly -7.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.81%50.81%50.81%51.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.841.851.8554.64%54.20%54.05%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Western Bulldogs (Local): 49.19%; Collingwood Magpies (Visit): 50.81%. For Western Bulldogs (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.03. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.93, with an expected value of -5.06%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Casumo🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -5.06%E -2.62%K -5.44%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.01%E -3.25%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-22 09:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -5.06%E -2.62%K -5.44%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.01%E -3.25%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-22 09:55
TABtouch🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -5.06%E -2.62%K -5.44%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.01%E -3.25%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-22 09:55
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -5.06%E -2.62%K -5.44%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.01%E -3.25%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-22 09:55
Unibet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.94%EV -5.55%E -2.89%K -6.03%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.06%EV -6.52%E -3.54%K -7.76%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-22 09:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.19%EV -7.02%E -3.72%K -7.89%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.81%EV -7.02%E -3.84%K -8.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 10:03
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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