The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Western Bulldogs v Carlton Blues

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 05:16 UTC

Final: Western Bulldogs 82–82 Carlton Blues

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Western Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 28.72%3.48fair odd
EV +14.87%
Edge +3.72%
Kelly +4.96%
Growth +0.737%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.08%28.23%28.51%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.303.304.0033.33%30.33%30.30%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Carlton Blues (Visit)

Prediction 71.28%1.40fair odd
EV -1.63%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -4.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.81%71.77%71.49%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.321.331.3883.33%75.61%75.19%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Western Bulldogs (Local): 28.72%; Carlton Blues (Visit): 71.28%. For Western Bulldogs (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.48. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.87%.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV +14.87%E +3.72%K +4.96%G +0.737%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -14.46%E -12.05%K -72.31%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-13 09:39
Coolbet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.36%E -0.694%K -0.983%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.91%E -4.48%K -18.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-16 05:00
Unibet (NL)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.36%E -0.694%K -0.983%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.91%E -4.48%K -18.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-16 05:09
Grosvenor🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.36%E -0.694%K -0.983%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.91%E -4.48%K -18.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-16 05:09
TABtouch🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.36%E -0.694%K -0.983%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.91%E -4.48%K -18.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-16 05:10
Casumo🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.36%E -0.694%K -0.983%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.91%E -4.48%K -18.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-16 05:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -2.36%E -0.694%K -0.983%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.33%E -5.64%K -24.45%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-16 05:14
Coral🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -2.36%E -0.694%K -0.983%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.33%E -5.64%K -24.45%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-16 05:14
Bet Right🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.79%E -1.13%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.20%E -3.91%K -15.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-16 04:44
PlayUp🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.79%E -1.13%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.20%E -3.91%K -15.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-16 05:15
Dabble (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -5.23%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -3.77%E -2.79%K -10.77%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-16 05:10
Unibet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.23%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.91%E -4.48%K -18.46%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-16 05:09
Marathon Bet🎯3.26I 30.67%NM 28.51%EV -6.38%E -1.96%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -7.33%E -5.64%K -24.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-16 05:10
SportsBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.67%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.20%E -3.91%K -15.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 05:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.67%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.20%E -3.91%K -15.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 04:54
TAB🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -8.10%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -3.06%E -2.25%K -8.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-16 05:04
DraftKings🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.10%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.77%E -2.79%K -10.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 05:09
Betr (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.10%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.77%E -2.79%K -10.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 04:59
Neds🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -10.97%E -3.54%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -3.77%E -2.79%K -10.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-16 05:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -10.97%E -3.54%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -3.77%E -2.79%K -10.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-16 05:14
NetBet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.41%EV -10.97%E -3.54%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 71.59%EV -12.32%E -10.02%K -53.58%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-16 05:14
Pinnacle🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.94%EV -11.55%E -3.75%K -5.55%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.06%EV -1.63%E -1.18%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-16 05:10
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -13.85%E -4.62%K -6.92%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.06%E -2.25%K -8.49%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-16 05:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92%0.7%2026-08-16 05:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%1.41I 70.92%NM 70.38%0.8%2026-08-16 05:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.26%1.41I 70.92%NM 69.74%1.7%2026-08-16 05:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%1.35I 74.07%NM 67.98%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%9.0%2026-08-16 05:14
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%1.35I 74.07%NM 67.98%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%9.0%2026-08-16 05:14
LeoVegas🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.20%1.26I 79.37%NM 72.78%90.00I 1.11%NM 1.02%9.0%2026-08-16 04:09