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West Coast Eagles v Sydney Swans

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 08:36 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

West Coast Eagles (Local)

Prediction 18.94%5.28fair odd
EV +8.92%
Edge +1.55%
Kelly +1.88%
Growth +0.168%

assuming max odds 5.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.30%18.66%18.96%22.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.995.005.7525.64%20.05%20.00%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sydney Swans (Visit)

Prediction 81.06%1.23fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -2.28%
Kelly -13.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.08%81.34%81.04%83.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.091.161.161.2091.74%86.44%86.21%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: West Coast Eagles (Local): 18.94%; Sydney Swans (Visit): 81.06%. For West Coast Eagles (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.28. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.92%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV +8.92%E +1.55%K +1.88%G +0.168%1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33%EV -6.78%E -5.90%K -45.23%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-04 08:34
Marathon Bet🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 16.30%EV +7.98%E +1.40%K +1.70%G +0.135%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.70%EV -10.03%E -9.03%K -91.15%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-04 08:34
Betr (AU)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +4.19%E +0.761%K +0.931%G +0.039%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -6.78%E -5.90%K -45.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 08:34
Dabble (AU)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -0.548%E -0.104%K -0.129%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -7.60%E -6.66%K -54.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 08:34
Grosvenor🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -1.49%E -0.287%K -0.356%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -6.78%E -5.90%K -45.23%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 08:34
Unibet (NL)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -1.49%E -0.287%K -0.356%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -6.78%E -5.90%K -45.23%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 08:34
Casumo🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -1.49%E -0.287%K -0.356%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -6.78%E -5.90%K -45.23%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 08:34
TABtouch🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -1.49%E -0.287%K -0.356%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -6.78%E -5.90%K -45.23%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 08:34
Pinnacle🎯5.14I 19.46%NM 18.41%EV -2.63%E -0.512%K -0.636%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.59%EV -5.97%E -5.15%K -37.34%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-04 08:34
Unibet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -3.39%E -0.665%K -0.827%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.60%EV -6.78%E -5.90%K -45.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 08:35
Bet Right🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -5.28%E -1.06%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.35%E -3.69%K -24.18%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 08:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -5.28%E -1.06%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.16%E -4.41%K -30.37%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-04 08:34
DraftKings🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -5.28%E -1.06%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.16%E -4.41%K -30.37%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-04 08:34
Neds🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -5.28%E -1.06%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.16%E -4.41%K -30.37%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-04 08:34
TAB🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -5.28%E -1.06%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.16%E -4.41%K -30.37%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-04 08:34
BetUS🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -5.28%E -1.06%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.16%E -4.41%K -30.37%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-04 08:35
Tipico (DE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -5.28%E -1.06%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -8.41%E -7.44%K -64.66%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-04 08:34
Coolbet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -7.18%E -1.46%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.35%E -3.69%K -24.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-04 08:34
SportsBet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -7.18%E -1.46%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -5.16%E -4.41%K -30.37%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 08:34
Coral🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -10.02%E -2.11%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -5.16%E -4.41%K -30.37%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 08:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -10.02%E -2.11%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -5.16%E -4.41%K -30.37%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 08:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -10.02%E -2.11%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -5.97%E -5.15%K -37.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 08:35
Paddy Power🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -14.76%E -3.28%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -2.73%E -2.28%K -13.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-04 08:35
Everygame🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -14.76%E -3.28%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 79.51%EV -5.97%E -5.15%K -37.34%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-04 08:33
NetBet (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.50%EV -14.76%E -3.28%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 80.50%EV -11.65%E -10.69%K -129.42%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-04 08:34
Unibet (FR)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -26.12%E -6.70%K -9.01%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 77.08%EV -5.97%E -5.15%K -37.34%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-04 08:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99%1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01%0.9%2026-04-04 08:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61%0.9%2026-04-04 08:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61%0.9%2026-04-04 08:34

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.85%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.41%125.00I 0.80%NM 0.73%9.0%2026-04-04 08:35
Betsson🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.85%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.41%125.00I 0.80%NM 0.73%9.0%2026-04-04 08:34