The School of Odds
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West Coast Eagles v Richmond Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 06:15 UTC

Final: West Coast Eagles 88–99 Richmond Tigers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

West Coast Eagles (Local)

Prediction 68.28%1.46fair odd
EV -2.36%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -5.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.27%68.22%68.52%70.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.381.381.4378.13%72.48%72.46%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Richmond Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 31.72%3.15fair odd
EV -1.03%
Edge -0.329%
Kelly -0.484%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.86%31.78%31.48%33.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.952.963.1237.04%33.87%33.73%32.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: West Coast Eagles (Local): 68.28%; Richmond Tigers (Visit): 31.72%. For Richmond Tigers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.15. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.12, with an expected value of -1.03%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV -2.36%E -1.65%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -9.27%E -3.24%K -4.99%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-02 06:10
TAB🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.05%E -2.14%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -8.01%E -2.76%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-02 06:10
DraftKings🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.73%E -2.64%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.01%E -2.76%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 06:10
PlayUp🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.73%E -2.64%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.01%E -2.76%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 05:55
Dabble (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -4.41%E -3.15%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -1.66%E -0.536%K -0.791%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-02 05:45
BetUS🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.41%E -3.15%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.83%E -1.61%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-01 00:05
Grosvenor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.41%E -3.15%K -11.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.42%E -2.18%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 06:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.41%E -3.15%K -11.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.42%E -2.18%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 06:10
TABtouch🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.41%E -3.15%K -11.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.42%E -2.18%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 06:10
Casumo🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.41%E -3.15%K -11.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.42%E -2.18%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 06:10
Unibet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.41%E -3.15%K -11.03%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.01%E -2.76%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-02 05:55
Everygame🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.41%E -3.15%K -11.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.76%E -4.64%K -7.29%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 06:10
Coolbet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.55%EV -5.09%E -3.66%K -13.06%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.45%EV -3.88%E -1.28%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-02 06:08
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.78%E -4.19%K -15.20%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.25%E -1.06%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 00:45
Neds🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.78%E -4.19%K -15.20%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.25%E -1.06%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 00:45
Bet Right🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.78%E -4.19%K -15.20%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.25%E -1.06%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 05:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.78%E -4.19%K -15.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.83%E -1.61%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-02 06:10
Betsson🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -5.78%E -4.19%K -15.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -11.18%E -3.99%K -6.21%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 04:45
NordicBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -5.78%E -4.19%K -15.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -11.18%E -3.99%K -6.21%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 04:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -6.46%E -4.71%K -17.46%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -3.25%E -1.06%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-02 05:35
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.14%E -5.25%K -19.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.83%E -1.61%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 06:05
Coral🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.14%E -5.25%K -19.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.83%E -1.61%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-01 00:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.14%E -5.25%K -19.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.83%E -1.61%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-01 00:03
SportsBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.80%EV -7.83%E -5.80%K -22.36%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.20%EV -1.03%E -0.329%K -0.484%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 06:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.82%EV -7.83%E -5.80%K -22.36%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.18%EV -5.47%E -1.83%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 05:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.83%EV -8.51%E -6.35%K -25.02%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.17%EV -14.35%E -5.31%K -8.44%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-02 06:01
Tipico (DE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -9.87%E -7.48%K -30.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -1.66%E -0.536%K -0.791%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-01 00:04
NetBet (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 68.78%EV -12.60%E -9.85%K -45.02%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.22%EV -10.54%E -3.74%K -5.79%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-02 06:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%0.8%2026-05-02 06:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%0.8%2026-05-02 06:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%0.8%2026-05-02 06:10