The School of Odds
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West Coast Eagles v Collingwood Magpies

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 06:10 UTC

Final: West Coast Eagles 98–117 Collingwood Magpies

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

West Coast Eagles (Local)

Prediction 42.55%2.35fair odd
EV -1.28%
Edge -0.554%
Kelly -0.973%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.26%42.33%42.49%44.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.222.202.3247.62%45.01%45.45%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Collingwood Magpies (Visit)

Prediction 57.45%1.74fair odd
EV -2.33%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -3.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.84%57.67%57.51%59.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.631.651.7065.79%61.31%60.61%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: West Coast Eagles (Local): 42.55%; Collingwood Magpies (Visit): 57.45%. For West Coast Eagles (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.35. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.32, with an expected value of -1.28%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -1.28%E -0.554%K -0.973%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -7.50%E -4.66%K -12.30%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 05:45
TABtouch🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -1.28%E -0.554%K -0.973%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -7.50%E -4.66%K -12.30%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 05:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -1.28%E -0.554%K -0.973%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -7.50%E -4.66%K -12.30%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 05:45
Casumo🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -1.28%E -0.554%K -0.973%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -7.50%E -4.66%K -12.30%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 05:45
BetUS🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -1.71%E -0.740%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -6.93%E -4.28%K -11.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-09 06:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -2.14%E -0.929%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -10.95%E -7.07%K -19.91%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-07 03:10
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -2.99%E -1.31%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -7.50%E -4.66%K -12.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-09 05:45
Bet Right🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%EV -3.84%E -1.70%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%EV -5.78%E -3.53%K -9.03%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 05:00
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.26%E -1.89%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.21%E -3.16%K -8.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-09 05:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.26%E -1.89%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.21%E -3.16%K -8.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-09 05:55
Pinnacle🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -5.11%E -2.29%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -3.48%E -2.07%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-09 04:10
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.39%E -2.90%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.06%E -2.43%K -6.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 05:55
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.39%E -2.90%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.06%E -2.43%K -6.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 05:55
TAB🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.39%E -2.90%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.06%E -2.43%K -6.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 05:55
Dabble (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.39%E -2.90%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.06%E -2.43%K -6.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 06:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -6.39%E -2.90%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -4.63%E -2.79%K -7.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-09 05:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.39%E -2.90%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.21%E -3.16%K -8.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-09 05:55
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.39%E -2.90%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.21%E -3.16%K -8.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-09 05:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.39%E -2.90%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.21%E -3.16%K -8.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-09 06:05
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.39%E -2.90%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.21%E -3.16%K -8.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-09 06:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.39%E -2.90%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.50%E -4.66%K -12.30%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-09 06:05
SportsBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -7.24%E -3.32%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -4.63%E -2.79%K -7.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-09 05:54
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.52%E -3.96%K -7.41%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.33%E -1.37%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 06:04
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -8.52%E -3.96%K -7.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -8.08%E -5.05%K -13.47%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 06:05
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -8.52%E -3.96%K -7.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -8.08%E -5.05%K -13.47%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 06:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.78%EV -10.65%E -5.07%K -9.68%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.22%EV -9.80%E -6.24%K -17.20%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-09 06:05
NetBet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.99%EV -10.65%E -5.07%K -9.68%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 58.01%EV -12.68%E -8.34%K -24.38%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-09 06:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94%0.4%2026-08-09 06:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94%0.4%2026-08-09 06:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94%0.4%2026-08-09 06:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.07%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.62%70.00I 1.43%NM 1.31%9.0%2026-08-09 06:05

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