The School of Odds
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Sydney Swans v Port Adelaide Power

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 06:15 UTC

Final: Sydney Swans 167–70 Port Adelaide Power

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Swans (Local)

Prediction 88.85%1.13fair odd
EV -4.04%
Edge -3.74%
Kelly -50.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.71%88.76%88.78%90.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.061.061.0899.01%94.61%94.34%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Port Adelaide Power (Visit)

Prediction 11.15%8.97fair odd
EV +11.47%
Edge +1.15%
Kelly +1.27%
Growth +0.146%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.50%11.24%11.22%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.308.378.0010.0015.87%11.95%12.50%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Swans (Local): 88.85%; Port Adelaide Power (Visit): 11.15%. For Port Adelaide Power (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.97. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.47%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -6.70%E -6.38%K -134.08%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +11.47%E +1.15%K +1.27%G +0.146%5.2%2026-08-08 02:35
Neds🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -6.70%E -6.38%K -134.08%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +11.47%E +1.15%K +1.27%G +0.146%5.2%2026-08-08 02:35
PlayUp🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -6.70%E -6.38%K -134.08%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +11.47%E +1.15%K +1.27%G +0.146%5.2%2026-08-08 03:35
Coolbet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -5.82%E -5.49%K -96.93%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV +5.90%E +0.621%K +0.694%G +0.041%4.9%2026-08-08 06:10
SportsBet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -6.70%E -6.38%K -134.08%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV +5.90%E +0.621%K +0.694%G +0.041%5.8%2026-08-08 06:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.22%EV -8.48%E -8.23%K -282.71%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.78%EV +5.90%E +0.621%K +0.694%G +0.041%7.6%2026-08-08 05:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.93%E -4.60%K -70.39%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +0.322%E +0.036%K +0.040%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-08 06:10
Paddy Power🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -5.82%E -5.49%K -96.93%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV +0.322%E +0.036%K +0.040%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-08 06:05
Dabble (AU)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -5.82%E -5.49%K -96.93%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV +0.322%E +0.036%K +0.040%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-08 05:25
Bet Right🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -4.93%E -4.60%K -70.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -5.25%E -0.618%K -0.700%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-08 06:00
DraftKings🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -4.93%E -4.60%K -70.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -5.25%E -0.618%K -0.700%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-08 06:10
Pinnacle🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.75%EV -4.93%E -4.60%K -70.39%G +0.000%8.44I 11.85%NM 11.25%EV -5.92%E -0.701%K -0.796%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 06:00
TAB🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.04%E -3.74%K -50.48%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -10.83%E -1.35%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 06:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.04%E -3.74%K -50.48%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -10.83%E -1.35%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 06:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.82%E -5.49%K -96.93%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -10.83%E -1.35%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 06:10
Casumo🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.82%E -5.49%K -96.93%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -10.83%E -1.35%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 06:10
Grosvenor🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.82%E -5.49%K -96.93%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -10.83%E -1.35%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 06:10
TABtouch🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.82%E -5.49%K -96.93%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -10.83%E -1.35%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 06:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.82%E -5.49%K -96.93%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -10.83%E -1.35%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 02:15
Coral🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.82%E -5.49%K -96.93%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -10.83%E -1.35%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 02:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -6.70%E -6.38%K -134.08%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -10.83%E -1.35%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 03:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 88.47%EV -10.26%E -10.16%K -1025.83%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.53%EV -13.61%E -1.76%K -2.02%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 05:54
Unibet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.62%EV -5.82%E -5.49%K -96.93%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -16.40%E -2.19%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 02:55
NordicBet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 86.09%EV -6.70%E -6.38%K -134.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -27.55%E -4.24%K -5.01%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-08 01:30
Betsson🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 86.09%EV -6.70%E -6.38%K -134.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -27.55%E -4.24%K -5.01%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-08 01:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 85.71%EV -6.70%E -6.38%K -134.08%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.29%EV -29.77%E -4.73%K -5.62%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 06:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.11I 90.09%NM 89.64%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.36%0.5%2026-08-08 06:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.11I 90.09%NM 89.64%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.36%0.5%2026-08-08 06:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.11I 90.09%NM 89.64%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.36%0.5%2026-08-08 06:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.06%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.03%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.91%9.6%2026-08-08 01:30

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