Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Swans v Port Adelaide Power

2026-08-08 06:15 UTC — AFL

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Swans (Local)

Prediction 82.08%1.22fair odd
EV -1.51%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -7.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.95%82.08%82.08%82.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.151.161.2093.46%86.83%86.21%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Port Adelaide Power (Visit)

Prediction 17.92%5.58fair odd
EV -5.01%
Edge -0.945%
Kelly -1.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.83%17.92%17.92%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.025.055.3022.22%19.93%19.80%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Paddy Power1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -1.51%E -1.26%K -7.54%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -19.35%E -4.30%K -5.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-30 03:54
SportsBet1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -3.97%E -3.39%K -23.35%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -8.59%E -1.68%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-30 03:54
Bet Right1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.97%E -3.39%K -23.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -10.39%E -2.08%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-30 04:04
Ladbrokes (AU)1.15I 86.96%NM 82.17%EV -5.61%E -4.88%K -37.41%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.83%EV -5.01%E -0.945%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-30 04:19
Neds1.15I 86.96%NM 82.17%EV -5.61%E -4.88%K -37.41%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.83%EV -5.01%E -0.945%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-30 04:19
NetBet (FR)1.07I 93.46%NM 82.08%EV -12.18%E -11.38%K -173.97%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.92%EV -12.18%E -2.49%K -3.12%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-30 05:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.09I 91.74%NM 78.59%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.41%16.7%2026-07-30 07:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.09I 91.74%NM 78.59%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.41%16.7%2026-07-30 07:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.09I 91.74%NM 48.10%1.01I 99.01%NM 51.90%90.8%2026-07-30 06:15