Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Swans v North Melbourne Kangaroos

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 05:20 UTC

Final: Sydney Swans 123–70 North Melbourne Kangaroos

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

56%

44%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Swans (Local)

Prediction 56.08%1.78fair odd

EV +20.58%

Edge +9.57%

Kelly +17.89%

Growth +3.68%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

43.27%54.16%56.35%58.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.531.681.652.1565.36%59.67%60.61%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

North Melbourne Kangaroos (Visit)

Prediction 43.92%2.28fair odd

EV +1.01%

Edge +0.440%

Kelly +0.778%

Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

41.33%45.84%43.65%56.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.642.152.202.3060.98%46.56%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Swans (Local): 56.08%; North Melbourne Kangaroos (Visit): 43.92%. For Sydney Swans (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.78. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +20.58%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV +20.58%E +9.57%K +17.89%G +3.68%	1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -27.97%E -17.06%K -43.71%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-08-19 01:18
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV +0.947%E +0.526%K +1.18%G +0.011%	1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -16.56%E -8.71%K -18.39%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-08-22 10:15
Paddy Power🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.98%E -1.72%K -4.08%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.77%E -3.70%K -7.07%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-23 05:05
SportsBet🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -3.54%E -2.06%K -4.92%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -7.77%E -3.70%K -7.07%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-23 05:04
Pinnacle🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 54.64%EV -4.10%E -2.40%K -5.77%G +0.000%	2.06I 48.54%NM 45.36%EV -9.53%E -4.63%K -8.99%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-08-23 05:19
DraftKings🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.22%E -3.09%K -7.57%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.58%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-08-23 05:19
Neds🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.78%E -3.44%K -8.50%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.38%E -1.54%K -2.82%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-23 03:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.78%E -3.44%K -8.50%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.38%E -1.54%K -2.82%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-23 03:25
Coolbet🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.78%E -3.44%K -8.50%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.38%E -1.54%K -2.82%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-23 05:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -6.90%E -4.16%K -10.46%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -3.38%E -1.54%K -2.82%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-08-23 05:09
Dabble (AU)🎯	1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%EV -6.90%E -4.16%K -10.46%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -7.77%E -3.70%K -7.07%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-08-23 04:09
PlayUp🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -7.46%E -4.52%K -11.48%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -1.18%E -0.526%K -0.947%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-23 03:25
Grosvenor🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -7.46%E -4.52%K -11.48%G +0.000%	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -2.06%E -0.925%K -1.68%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-23 04:40
Casumo🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -7.46%E -4.52%K -11.48%G +0.000%	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -2.06%E -0.925%K -1.68%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-23 04:39
TABtouch🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -7.46%E -4.52%K -11.48%G +0.000%	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -2.06%E -0.925%K -1.68%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-23 04:39
Coral🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.46%E -4.52%K -11.48%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.38%E -1.54%K -2.82%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-08-23 03:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.46%E -4.52%K -11.48%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.38%E -1.54%K -2.82%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-08-23 03:35
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -8.03%E -4.89%K -12.54%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -3.38%E -1.54%K -2.82%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-08-23 05:20
Unibet🎯	1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -8.03%E -4.89%K -12.54%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -3.38%E -1.54%K -2.82%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-08-23 04:39
Bet Right🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -8.59%E -5.27%K -13.63%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -3.38%E -1.54%K -2.82%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-08-23 05:19
TAB🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -9.15%E -5.65%K -14.75%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV +1.01%E +0.440%K +0.778%G +0.008%	5.2%	2026-08-23 05:19
Betr (AU)🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -9.15%E -5.65%K -14.75%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV +1.01%E +0.440%K +0.778%G +0.008%	5.2%	2026-08-23 05:19
Betsson🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -9.15%E -5.65%K -14.75%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -5.58%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-08-23 04:44
NordicBet🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -9.15%E -5.65%K -14.75%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -5.58%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-08-23 04:48
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 56.91%EV -10.83%E -6.81%K -18.36%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 43.09%EV -7.77%E -3.70%K -7.07%G +0.000%	10.5%	2026-08-23 05:10
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 57.26%EV -14.19%E -9.28%K -26.78%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 42.74%EV -9.97%E -4.86%K -9.49%G +0.000%	14.1%	2026-08-23 04:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88%	2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12%	0.5%	2026-08-23 05:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88%	2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12%	0.5%	2026-08-23 05:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88%	2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12%	0.5%	2026-08-23 05:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
LeoVegas🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 56.38%	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.48%	80.00I 1.25%NM 1.14%	9.5%	2026-08-23 04:44