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Sydney Swans v Gold Coast Suns

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 06:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Swans (Local)

Prediction 56.47%1.77fair odd
EV -0.053%
Edge -0.030%
Kelly -0.069%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.66%56.50%56.07%59.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.681.671.7763.69%59.65%59.88%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gold Coast Suns (Visit)

Prediction 43.53%2.30fair odd
EV +1.87%
Edge +0.798%
Kelly +1.39%
Growth +0.026%

assuming max odds 2.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.91%43.50%43.93%46.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.152.162.3450.00%46.60%46.30%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Swans (Local): 56.47%; Gold Coast Suns (Visit): 43.53%. For Gold Coast Suns (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.30. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.34, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.87%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -8.52%E -5.26%K -13.75%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV +1.87%E +0.798%K +1.39%G +0.026%4.5%2026-04-11 06:14
PlayUp🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.70%E -3.41%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.05%E -0.912%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 06:14
Bet Right🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.83%E -4.14%K -10.51%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.05%E -0.912%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 06:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -7.96%E -4.88%K -12.63%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -2.05%E -0.912%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-11 06:15
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.14%E -3.06%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.23%E -1.92%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-11 06:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.14%E -3.06%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.23%E -1.92%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-11 06:15
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.14%E -3.06%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.23%E -1.92%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-11 06:15
Dabble (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.14%E -3.06%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.23%E -1.92%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-11 06:14
TAB🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.70%E -3.41%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.23%E -1.92%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 06:15
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.70%E -3.41%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.23%E -1.92%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 06:15
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -6.26%E -3.77%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -5.10%E -2.34%K -4.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 06:15
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -4.01%E -2.36%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -5.53%E -2.55%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-11 06:13
Unibet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.40%EV -5.70%E -3.41%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.60%EV -5.97%E -2.76%K -5.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 06:15
DraftKings🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.70%E -3.41%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.40%E -2.98%K -5.57%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 06:15
TABtouch🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -6.83%E -4.14%K -10.51%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.54%EV -6.84%E -3.20%K -6.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 06:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.97%EV -6.26%E -3.77%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.03%EV -8.15%E -3.86%K -7.34%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 06:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -1.75%E -1.00%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -8.58%E -4.09%K -7.80%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 06:15
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.01%E -2.36%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.58%E -4.09%K -7.80%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 06:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.01%E -2.36%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.58%E -4.09%K -7.80%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 06:14
Neds🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -0.053%E -0.030%K -0.069%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -10.76%E -5.25%K -10.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 06:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -0.053%E -0.030%K -0.069%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -10.76%E -5.25%K -10.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 06:14
BetUS🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -1.75%E -1.00%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -10.76%E -5.25%K -10.25%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 06:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.01%E -2.36%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -12.93%E -6.47%K -12.93%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-11 06:14
Unibet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.87%EV -10.78%E -6.82%K -18.59%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.13%EV -12.93%E -6.47%K -12.93%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-11 06:14
NetBet (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.02%EV -11.35%E -7.23%K -19.91%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.98%EV -12.93%E -6.47%K -12.93%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-11 06:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86%0.6%2026-04-11 06:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86%0.6%2026-04-11 06:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86%0.6%2026-04-11 06:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.49%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.60%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%9.2%2026-04-11 06:14
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.49%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.60%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%9.2%2026-04-11 06:15