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Sydney Swans v Carlton Blues

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 08:32 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Swans (Local)

Prediction 73.52%1.36fair odd
EV -4.42%
Edge -3.40%
Kelly -14.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.02%73.42%73.22%75.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.281.281.3084.75%78.38%78.13%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Carlton Blues (Visit)

Prediction 26.48%3.78fair odd
EV +3.26%
Edge +0.836%
Kelly +1.12%
Growth +0.037%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.56%26.58%26.78%27.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.603.603.9030.30%27.76%27.78%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Swans (Local): 73.52%; Carlton Blues (Visit): 26.48%. For Carlton Blues (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.78. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.26%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Bet Right🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -5.89%E -4.60%K -21.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV +3.26%E +0.836%K +1.12%G +0.037%3.8%2026-03-05 08:30
PlayUp🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -6.63%E -5.22%K -24.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV +3.26%E +0.836%K +1.12%G +0.037%4.4%2026-03-05 08:25
Bovada🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -8.83%E -7.12%K -36.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV +0.614%E +0.162%K +0.219%G +0.001%7.0%2026-03-05 08:30
Neds🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -5.89%E -4.60%K -21.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -0.710%E -0.189%K -0.258%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-05 06:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -5.89%E -4.60%K -21.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -0.710%E -0.189%K -0.258%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-05 06:05
Dabble (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -5.89%E -4.60%K -21.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -0.710%E -0.189%K -0.258%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-05 03:00
SportsBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -7.36%E -5.84%K -28.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -0.710%E -0.189%K -0.258%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-05 07:35
Coolbet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.89%E -4.60%K -21.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.03%E -0.550%K -0.753%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-05 07:25
Casumo🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -5.89%E -4.60%K -21.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -3.36%E -0.920%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-05 07:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -5.89%E -4.60%K -21.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -3.36%E -0.920%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-05 07:05
Grosvenor🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -5.89%E -4.60%K -21.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -3.36%E -0.920%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-05 07:05
TABtouch🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -5.89%E -4.60%K -21.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -3.36%E -0.920%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-05 07:05
Unibet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -6.63%E -5.22%K -24.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -4.68%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-05 08:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -8.10%E -6.48%K -32.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -4.68%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-05 07:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.42%E -3.40%K -14.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -6.01%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 20:34
TAB🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.42%E -3.40%K -14.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-05 08:29
Paddy Power🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.16%E -4.00%K -17.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-05 04:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.16%E -4.00%K -17.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-05 08:30
BetUS🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.16%E -4.00%K -17.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-04 15:34
DraftKings🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.89%E -4.60%K -21.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-05 08:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.89%E -4.60%K -21.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-04 00:20
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.89%E -4.60%K -21.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-04 06:09
Pinnacle🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.86%EV -4.42%E -3.40%K -14.74%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.14%EV -7.59%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-05 08:29
NetBet (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 74.24%EV -13.24%E -11.22%K -73.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.76%EV -9.98%E -2.93%K -4.16%G +0.000%14.2%2026-03-05 08:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.02%EV -5.16%E -4.00%K -17.78%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.98%EV -12.10%E -3.64%K -5.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-05 08:25
Everygame🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -5.89%E -4.60%K -21.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -12.62%E -3.83%K -5.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-05 08:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%0.8%2026-03-05 08:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%0.8%2026-03-05 08:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%0.8%2026-03-05 08:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.58%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.51%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.91%9.4%2026-03-05 08:30
NordicBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.58%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.51%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.91%9.4%2026-03-05 08:30