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Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions

2026-09-03 09:40 UTC — AFL

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Swans (Local)

Prediction 23.81%4.20fair odd
EV -4.76%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -1.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.81%23.81%23.81%25.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.823.854.0027.40%26.19%25.97%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brisbane Lions (Visit)

Prediction 76.19%1.31fair odd
EV -4.00%
Edge -3.17%
Kelly -15.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.34%76.19%76.19%76.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.261.261.2680.00%79.44%79.37%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sydney Swans (Local): 23.81%; Brisbane Lions (Visit): 76.19%. For Brisbane Lions (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.31. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.26, with an expected value of -4.00%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.76%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.76%E -3.81%K -19.05%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-23 15:59
Virgin Bet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -8.33%E -2.16%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.00%E -3.17%K -15.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 13:10
Grosvenor🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -8.33%E -2.16%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.00%E -3.17%K -15.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 13:10
Unibet (NL)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -8.33%E -2.16%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.00%E -3.17%K -15.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 13:10
TABtouch🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -8.33%E -2.16%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.00%E -3.17%K -15.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 13:10
Casumo🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -8.33%E -2.16%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.00%E -3.17%K -15.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 13:10
Unibet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -13.10%E -3.59%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -4.00%E -3.17%K -15.38%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-23 13:05
LiveScore Bet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -13.10%E -3.59%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -4.00%E -3.17%K -15.38%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-23 13:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.