Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 05:15 UTC

Final: Sydney Swans 141–88 Brisbane Lions

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

26%

74%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Swans (Local)

Prediction 26.34%3.80fair odd

EV -1.21%

Edge -0.324%

Kelly -0.442%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

25.00%26.21%26.24%27.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.253.593.603.7530.77%27.83%27.78%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brisbane Lions (Visit)

Prediction 73.66%1.36fair odd

EV -4.25%

Edge -3.27%

Kelly -14.15%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

72.34%73.79%73.76%75.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.191.271.281.3084.03%78.51%78.13%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Swans (Local): 26.34%; Brisbane Lions (Visit): 73.66%. For Sydney Swans (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.80. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.75, with an expected value of -1.21%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Dabble (AU)🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -1.21%E -0.324%K -0.442%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -5.72%E -4.47%K -20.42%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-03 08:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -1.21%E -0.324%K -0.442%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -5.72%E -4.47%K -20.42%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-03 23:39
Neds🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -1.21%E -0.324%K -0.442%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -5.72%E -4.47%K -20.42%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-03 23:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -1.21%E -0.324%K -0.442%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.93%E -6.34%K -31.71%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-09-02 02:20
Coral🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -1.21%E -0.324%K -0.442%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.93%E -6.34%K -31.71%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-09-02 05:40
Marathon Bet🎯	3.72I 26.88%NM 25.00%EV -2.00%E -0.539%K -0.737%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 75.00%EV -8.67%E -6.99%K -36.10%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-09-04 08:04
Virgin Bet🎯	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.53%E -0.684%K -0.938%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.72%E -4.47%K -20.42%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-04 08:15
Casumo🎯	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.53%E -0.684%K -0.938%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.72%E -4.47%K -20.42%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-04 08:15
Unibet (NL)🎯	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.53%E -0.684%K -0.938%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.72%E -4.47%K -20.42%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-04 08:14
TABtouch🎯	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.53%E -0.684%K -0.938%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.72%E -4.47%K -20.42%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-04 08:20
Grosvenor🎯	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.53%E -0.684%K -0.938%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.72%E -4.47%K -20.42%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-04 08:15
Bet Right🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.17%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.98%E -3.86%K -17.18%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-04 12:55
PlayUp🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.17%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.98%E -3.86%K -17.18%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-04 11:30
Coolbet🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.17%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.98%E -3.86%K -17.18%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-04 07:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -5.17%E -1.43%K -1.99%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.72%E -4.47%K -20.42%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-03 08:30
SportsBet🎯	3.57I 28.01%NM 26.69%EV -5.96%E -1.67%K -2.32%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.31%EV -4.25%E -3.27%K -14.15%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-04 12:53
Pinnacle🎯	3.57I 28.01%NM 26.24%EV -5.96%E -1.67%K -2.32%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 73.76%EV -6.46%E -5.08%K -23.91%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-09-04 12:55
Betr (AU)🎯	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -6.48%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.25%E -3.27%K -14.15%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-04 01:20
DraftKings🎯	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -6.48%E -1.83%K -2.54%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -4.98%E -3.86%K -17.18%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-04 12:45
TAB🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -7.80%E -2.23%K -3.12%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.25%E -3.27%K -14.15%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-09-04 12:49
LiveScore Bet🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.80%E -2.23%K -3.12%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.72%E -4.47%K -20.42%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-09-04 08:15
Unibet🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.80%E -2.23%K -3.12%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.72%E -4.47%K -20.42%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-09-04 08:14
Betsson🎯	3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -9.12%E -2.64%K -3.72%G +0.000%	1.26I 79.37%NM 73.25%EV -7.19%E -5.71%K -27.66%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-09-03 15:59
NordicBet🎯	3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -9.12%E -2.64%K -3.72%G +0.000%	1.26I 79.37%NM 73.25%EV -7.19%E -5.71%K -27.66%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-09-03 15:59
Paddy Power🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -10.43%E -3.07%K -4.35%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.25%E -3.27%K -14.15%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-04 12:53
NetBet (FR)🎯	3.35I 29.85%NM 26.21%EV -11.75%E -3.51%K -5.00%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 73.79%EV -12.35%E -10.38%K -64.99%G +0.000%	13.9%	2026-09-04 07:25
Unibet (FR)🎯	3.25I 30.77%NM 27.46%EV -14.39%E -4.43%K -6.39%G +0.000%	1.23I 81.30%NM 72.54%EV -9.40%E -7.64%K -40.88%G +0.000%	12.1%	2026-09-04 05:19

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%	1.35I 74.07%NM 73.79%	0.4%	2026-09-04 13:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%	1.35I 74.07%NM 73.79%	0.4%	2026-09-04 13:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%	1.35I 74.07%NM 73.79%	0.4%	2026-09-04 13:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
LeoVegas🎯	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%	1.30I 76.92%NM 70.39%	90.00I 1.11%NM 1.02%	9.3%	2026-09-04 06:29