The School of Odds
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St Kilda Saints v Richmond Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 05:18 UTC

Final: St Kilda Saints 109–73 Richmond Tigers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St Kilda Saints (Local)

Prediction 86.31%1.16fair odd
EV -4.19%
Edge -3.78%
Kelly -38.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.46%86.32%86.44%88.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.091.091.1198.04%91.95%91.74%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Richmond Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 13.69%7.31fair odd
EV +8.12%
Edge +1.03%
Kelly +1.18%
Growth +0.096%

assuming max odds 7.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.73%13.68%13.56%16.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.406.917.007.9018.52%14.47%14.29%12.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St Kilda Saints (Local): 86.31%; Richmond Tigers (Visit): 13.69%. For Richmond Tigers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.31. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.12%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.27%EV -9.37%E -8.92%K -187.42%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.73%EV +8.12%E +1.03%K +1.18%G +0.096%7.9%2026-05-17 05:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -5.92%E -5.43%K -65.76%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +2.65%E +0.353%K +0.408%G +0.011%5.1%2026-05-17 00:55
Neds🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -5.92%E -5.43%K -65.76%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +2.65%E +0.353%K +0.408%G +0.011%5.1%2026-05-17 00:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -5.92%E -5.43%K -65.76%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +2.65%E +0.353%K +0.408%G +0.011%5.1%2026-05-15 05:14
Grosvenor🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -5.92%E -5.43%K -65.76%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +2.65%E +0.353%K +0.408%G +0.011%5.1%2026-05-15 05:14
TABtouch🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -5.92%E -5.43%K -65.76%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +2.65%E +0.353%K +0.408%G +0.011%5.1%2026-05-15 05:14
TAB🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -5.92%E -5.43%K -65.76%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +2.65%E +0.353%K +0.408%G +0.011%5.1%2026-05-15 05:15
Casumo🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -5.92%E -5.43%K -65.76%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +2.65%E +0.353%K +0.408%G +0.011%5.1%2026-05-15 05:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -5.92%E -5.43%K -65.76%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +2.65%E +0.353%K +0.408%G +0.011%5.1%2026-05-17 03:50
PlayUp🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -5.92%E -5.43%K -65.76%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +2.65%E +0.353%K +0.408%G +0.011%5.1%2026-05-15 06:14
Coolbet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.59%EV -5.06%E -4.60%K -50.55%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.41%EV -2.83%E -0.398%K -0.463%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-17 05:14
Bet Right🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.06%E -4.60%K -50.55%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.19%E -0.599%K -0.699%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-10 21:59
Dabble (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.06%E -4.60%K -50.55%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.19%E -0.599%K -0.699%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-12 01:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.92%E -5.43%K -65.76%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -4.19%E -0.599%K -0.699%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 02:50
Pinnacle🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.27%EV -5.06%E -4.60%K -50.55%G +0.000%6.91I 14.47%NM 13.73%EV -5.43%E -0.785%K -0.918%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 05:05
Paddy Power🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.19%E -3.78%K -38.11%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -11.04%E -1.70%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-17 05:10
SportsBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.06%E -4.60%K -50.55%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -11.04%E -1.70%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 05:10
Unibet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -5.92%E -5.43%K -65.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -11.04%E -1.70%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-15 05:14
Tipico (DE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -6.78%E -6.28%K -84.77%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -11.04%E -1.70%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-11 07:29
Everygame🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -6.78%E -6.28%K -84.77%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -11.04%E -1.70%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-14 12:59
NetBet (FR)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 86.44%EV -11.96%E -11.73%K -598.01%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.56%EV -11.04%E -1.70%K -2.01%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-17 05:10
DraftKings🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -4.19%E -3.78%K -38.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -17.88%E -2.98%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 05:15
Coral🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 84.63%EV -5.92%E -5.43%K -65.76%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -17.88%E -2.98%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-14 23:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 84.63%EV -5.92%E -5.43%K -65.76%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -17.88%E -2.98%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-14 23:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 83.46%EV -7.64%E -7.14%K -109.21%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.54%EV -26.09%E -4.83%K -5.93%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 05:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 90.98%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.02%0.8%2026-05-17 05:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 90.98%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.02%0.8%2026-05-17 05:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 90.98%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.02%0.8%2026-05-17 05:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.60%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%125.00I 0.80%NM 0.73%9.1%2026-05-17 05:15
Betsson🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.60%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%125.00I 0.80%NM 0.73%9.1%2026-05-17 05:15