The School of Odds

St Kilda Saints v Port Adelaide Power

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 03:15 UTC

Final: St Kilda Saints 87–73 Port Adelaide Power

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

St Kilda Saints (Local)

Prediction 60.96%1.64fair odd
EV -3.69%
Edge -2.33%
Kelly -6.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.98%61.40%60.84%64.36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.441.531.541.5869%65%65%63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Port Adelaide Power (Visit)

Prediction 39.04%2.56fair odd
EV +3.86%
Edge +1.45%
Kelly +2.32%
Growth +0.090%

assuming max odds 2.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.64%38.60%39.16%41.02%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.202.442.452.6645%41%41%38%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

3 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle1.49I 67.11%NM 64.10%EV -9.18%E -6.16%K -18.72%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.90%EV +3.86%E +1.45%K +2.32%G +0.090%4.7%2026-07-11 03:10
Everygame1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -12.22%E -8.49%K -27.78%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV +1.51%E +0.582%K +0.946%G +0.014%7.9%2026-07-11 02:54
TABtouch1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -7.96%E -5.27%K -15.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -0.438%E -0.172%K -0.283%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 03:14
Grosvenor1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -7.96%E -5.27%K -15.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -0.438%E -0.172%K -0.283%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 03:14
Unibet (NL)1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -7.96%E -5.27%K -15.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -0.438%E -0.172%K -0.283%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 03:14
Casumo1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -7.96%E -5.27%K -15.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -0.438%E -0.172%K -0.283%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 03:14
BetUS1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.91%E -3.15%K -8.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.39%E -0.956%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-11 02:49
PlayUp1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.74%E -4.40%K -12.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.39%E -0.956%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 03:04
Unibet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.57%E -5.71%K -17.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -2.39%E -0.956%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-11 03:14
Betr (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.52%E -3.56%K -10.03%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.34%E -1.77%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 02:39
Neds1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.52%E -3.56%K -10.03%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.34%E -1.77%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 02:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.52%E -3.56%K -10.03%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.34%E -1.77%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 02:39
Bet Right1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -6.13%E -3.98%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -4.34%E -1.77%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-11 03:14
TAB1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.69%E -2.33%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.29%E -2.62%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-11 03:14
DraftKings1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.30%E -2.74%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.29%E -2.62%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 03:14
PointsBet (AU)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.91%E -3.15%K -8.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.29%E -2.62%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-11 03:14
SportsBet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.52%E -3.56%K -10.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.29%E -2.62%K -4.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-11 03:14
Tipico (DE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.57%E -5.71%K -17.13%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.29%E -2.62%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-11 01:59
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.30%E -2.74%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.08%E -2.97%K -5.13%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-11 01:30
Marathon Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.74%E -4.40%K -12.71%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.08%E -2.97%K -5.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-11 02:59
Coral1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -4.30%E -2.74%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -8.25%E -3.51%K -6.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-08 01:24
Ladbrokes (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -4.30%E -2.74%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -8.25%E -3.51%K -6.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-08 04:14
NetBet (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 60.81%EV -11.61%E -8.01%K -25.81%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.19%EV -12.15%E -5.40%K -9.72%G +0.000%13.4%2026-07-11 02:15
Unibet (FR)1.53I 65.36%NM 58.98%EV -6.74%E -4.40%K -12.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.02%EV -14.10%E -6.41%K -11.75%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-11 03:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%0.5%2026-07-11 03:14
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%0.5%2026-07-11 03:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%0.5%2026-07-11 03:14

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas1.57I 63.69%NM 58.75%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.15%8.4%2026-07-11 00:29
Betsson1.55I 64.52%NM 59.19%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.89%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%9.0%2026-07-11 03:14
NordicBet1.55I 64.52%NM 59.19%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.89%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%9.0%2026-07-11 03:14