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St Kilda Saints v Port Adelaide Power

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 03:15 UTC

Final: St Kilda Saints 87–73 Port Adelaide Power

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St Kilda Saints (Local)

Prediction 60.96%1.64fair odd
EV -3.69%
Edge -2.33%
Kelly -6.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.98%61.40%60.84%64.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.531.541.5869.44%65.34%65.15%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Port Adelaide Power (Visit)

Prediction 39.04%2.56fair odd
EV +3.86%
Edge +1.45%
Kelly +2.32%
Growth +0.090%

assuming max odds 2.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.64%38.60%39.16%41.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.442.452.6645.45%40.91%40.82%37.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St Kilda Saints (Local): 60.96%; Port Adelaide Power (Visit): 39.04%. For Port Adelaide Power (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.56. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.66, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.86%.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.10%EV -9.18%E -6.16%K -18.72%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.90%EV +3.86%E +1.45%K +2.32%G +0.090%4.7%2026-07-11 03:10
Everygame🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -12.22%E -8.49%K -27.78%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV +1.51%E +0.582%K +0.946%G +0.014%7.9%2026-07-11 02:54
TABtouch🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -7.96%E -5.27%K -15.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -0.438%E -0.172%K -0.283%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 03:14
Grosvenor🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -7.96%E -5.27%K -15.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -0.438%E -0.172%K -0.283%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 03:14
Unibet (NL)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -7.96%E -5.27%K -15.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -0.438%E -0.172%K -0.283%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 03:14
Casumo🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -7.96%E -5.27%K -15.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -0.438%E -0.172%K -0.283%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 03:14
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.91%E -3.15%K -8.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.39%E -0.956%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-11 02:49
PlayUp🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.74%E -4.40%K -12.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.39%E -0.956%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 03:04
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.57%E -5.71%K -17.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -2.39%E -0.956%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-11 03:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.52%E -3.56%K -10.03%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.34%E -1.77%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 02:39
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.52%E -3.56%K -10.03%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.34%E -1.77%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 02:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.52%E -3.56%K -10.03%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.34%E -1.77%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 02:39
Bet Right🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -6.13%E -3.98%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -4.34%E -1.77%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-11 03:14
TAB🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.69%E -2.33%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.29%E -2.62%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-11 03:14
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.30%E -2.74%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.29%E -2.62%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 03:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.91%E -3.15%K -8.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.29%E -2.62%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-11 03:14
SportsBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.52%E -3.56%K -10.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.29%E -2.62%K -4.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-11 03:14
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.57%E -5.71%K -17.13%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.29%E -2.62%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-11 01:59
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.30%E -2.74%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.08%E -2.97%K -5.13%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-11 01:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.74%E -4.40%K -12.71%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.08%E -2.97%K -5.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-11 02:59
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -4.30%E -2.74%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -8.25%E -3.51%K -6.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-08 01:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -4.30%E -2.74%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -8.25%E -3.51%K -6.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-08 04:14
NetBet (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 60.81%EV -11.61%E -8.01%K -25.81%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.19%EV -12.15%E -5.40%K -9.72%G +0.000%13.4%2026-07-11 02:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.98%EV -6.74%E -4.40%K -12.71%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.02%EV -14.10%E -6.41%K -11.75%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-11 03:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%0.5%2026-07-11 03:14
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%0.5%2026-07-11 03:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%0.5%2026-07-11 03:14

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.75%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.15%8.4%2026-07-11 00:29
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.19%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.89%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%9.0%2026-07-11 03:14
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.19%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.89%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%9.0%2026-07-11 03:14

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