Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

St Kilda Saints v Gold Coast Suns

Kickoff: 2026-08-20 09:32 UTC

Final: St Kilda Saints 80–103 Gold Coast Suns

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

66%

34%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St Kilda Saints (Local)

Prediction 65.67%1.52fair odd

EV -1.49%

Edge -0.997%

Kelly -2.99%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

63.73%65.76%65.79%68.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.341.431.441.5074.63%69.87%69.69%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gold Coast Suns (Visit)

Prediction 34.33%2.91fair odd

EV +1.27%

Edge +0.432%

Kelly +0.653%

Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.76%34.24%34.21%36.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.572.752.702.9538.91%36.40%37.04%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St Kilda Saints (Local): 65.67%; Gold Coast Suns (Visit): 34.33%. For Gold Coast Suns (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.91. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.27%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Dabble (AU)🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -6.75%E -4.75%K -16.07%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV +1.27%E +0.432%K +0.653%G +0.008%	4.3%	2026-08-19 22:35
Betr (AU)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -8.06%E -5.76%K -20.15%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +1.27%E +0.432%K +0.653%G +0.008%	5.3%	2026-08-20 09:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -6.75%E -4.75%K -16.07%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -0.443%E -0.153%K -0.233%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-08-20 09:09
Neds🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -6.75%E -4.75%K -16.07%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -0.443%E -0.153%K -0.233%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-08-20 09:10
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -11.35%E -8.40%K -32.42%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -0.443%E -0.153%K -0.233%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-08-20 05:49
Coral🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -8.06%E -5.76%K -20.15%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -2.16%E -0.758%K -1.17%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-08-20 05:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -8.06%E -5.76%K -20.15%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -2.16%E -0.758%K -1.17%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-08-20 05:24
Marathon Bet🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 66.90%EV -8.72%E -6.27%K -22.36%G +0.000%	2.81I 35.59%NM 33.10%EV -3.53%E -1.26%K -1.95%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-08-20 09:19
Coolbet🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.44%E -3.77%K -12.35%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.88%E -1.38%K -2.15%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-08-20 09:14
PlayUp🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.78%E -3.30%K -10.62%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.59%E -2.03%K -3.20%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-20 09:09
Paddy Power🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.44%E -3.77%K -12.35%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.59%E -2.03%K -3.20%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-20 08:49
SportsBet🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -6.09%E -4.26%K -14.17%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -5.59%E -2.03%K -3.20%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-08-20 09:19
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.46%E -2.36%K -7.37%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -7.31%E -2.71%K -4.30%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-20 09:19
TABtouch🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.46%E -2.36%K -7.37%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -7.31%E -2.71%K -4.30%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-20 09:19
Casumo🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.46%E -2.36%K -7.37%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -7.31%E -2.71%K -4.30%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-20 09:19
Grosvenor🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.46%E -2.36%K -7.37%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -7.31%E -2.71%K -4.30%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-20 09:19
DraftKings🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.78%E -3.30%K -10.62%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.31%E -2.71%K -4.30%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-08-20 09:14
NordicBet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.06%E -5.76%K -20.15%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.31%E -2.71%K -4.30%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-08-20 07:34
Betsson🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.06%E -5.76%K -20.15%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.31%E -2.71%K -4.30%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-08-20 07:34
Pinnacle🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.51%EV -2.81%E -1.90%K -5.85%G +0.000%	2.69I 37.17%NM 35.49%EV -7.65%E -2.84%K -4.53%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-20 09:20
Bet Right🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -1.49%E -0.997%K -2.99%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -9.03%E -3.41%K -5.47%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-08-20 09:10
TAB🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.81%E -1.90%K -5.85%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -9.03%E -3.41%K -5.47%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-20 09:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -2.81%E -1.90%K -5.85%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -10.74%E -4.13%K -6.71%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-08-20 09:14
Unibet🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -3.46%E -2.36%K -7.37%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -10.74%E -4.13%K -6.71%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-08-20 09:19
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 65.49%EV -10.03%E -7.32%K -27.11%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 34.51%EV -10.74%E -4.13%K -6.71%G +0.000%	11.5%	2026-08-20 09:19
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 65.73%EV -12.00%E -8.96%K -35.30%G +0.000%	2.57I 38.91%NM 34.27%EV -11.77%E -4.58%K -7.50%G +0.000%	13.5%	2026-08-20 09:24

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%	2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%	0.5%	2026-08-20 09:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%	2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%	0.5%	2026-08-20 09:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%	2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%	0.6%	2026-08-20 09:24

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
LeoVegas🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.19%	2.70I 37.04%NM 33.80%	90.00I 1.11%NM 1.01%	9.6%	2026-08-20 07:34