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St Kilda Saints v Brisbane Lions

Kickoff: 2026-03-28 01:36 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St Kilda Saints (Local)

Prediction 40.18%2.49fair odd
EV -3.56%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -2.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.46%40.16%40.05%42.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.312.302.4045.45%43.38%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brisbane Lions (Visit)

Prediction 59.82%1.67fair odd
EV -1.30%
Edge -0.790%
Kelly -2.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.69%59.84%59.95%61.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.581.581.6568.03%63.41%63.49%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St Kilda Saints (Local): 40.18%; Brisbane Lions (Visit): 59.82%. For Brisbane Lions (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.67. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.65, with an expected value of -1.30%; they did not produce positive expected value.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -3.56%E -1.48%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.49%E -3.47%K -9.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-28 01:15
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.56%E -1.48%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.09%E -3.88%K -10.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-28 00:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.56%E -1.48%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.09%E -3.88%K -10.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-28 00:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -3.56%E -1.48%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -10.28%E -6.85%K -20.55%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-27 17:14
Marathon Bet🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 38.87%EV -3.96%E -1.66%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.13%EV -9.08%E -5.97%K -17.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-27 22:55
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.57%E -2.37%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.10%E -1.91%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-28 00:40
Dabble (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.57%E -2.37%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.29%E -2.68%K -7.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-28 01:19
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -5.57%E -2.37%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.49%E -3.47%K -9.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-28 01:30
Coral🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.57%E -2.37%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.09%E -3.88%K -10.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-27 23:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.57%E -2.37%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.09%E -3.88%K -10.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-27 23:40
Pinnacle🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.27%EV -6.77%E -2.92%K -5.13%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.73%EV -2.50%E -1.53%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-28 01:25
BetUS🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.58%E -3.29%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.10%E -1.91%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-26 12:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.58%E -3.29%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.29%E -2.68%K -7.16%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-28 01:30
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.58%E -3.29%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.09%E -3.88%K -10.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-28 01:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.58%E -3.29%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.09%E -3.88%K -10.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-28 01:35
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%EV -8.38%E -3.68%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.38%EV -6.69%E -4.29%K -11.94%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-28 01:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -9.59%E -4.26%K -7.67%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -1.30%E -0.790%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-28 01:10
TAB🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -9.59%E -4.26%K -7.67%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -1.30%E -0.790%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-28 01:35
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -9.59%E -4.26%K -7.67%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -1.30%E -0.790%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-28 01:10
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -9.59%E -4.26%K -7.67%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.10%E -1.91%K -5.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-28 01:10
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -9.59%E -4.26%K -7.67%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -3.70%E -2.30%K -6.06%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-28 01:35
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -9.59%E -4.26%K -7.67%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -6.69%E -4.29%K -11.94%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-28 01:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.68%EV -9.59%E -4.26%K -7.67%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 60.32%EV -11.47%E -7.75%K -23.90%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-28 01:20
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.68%EV -9.59%E -4.26%K -7.67%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 60.32%EV -11.47%E -7.75%K -23.90%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-28 01:20
Everygame🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -11.60%E -5.27%K -9.66%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -4.29%E -2.68%K -7.16%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-28 00:45
NetBet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.05%EV -11.60%E -5.27%K -9.66%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 59.95%EV -12.07%E -8.21%K -25.68%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-28 01:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.98%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.02%0.8%2026-03-28 01:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.34%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.66%1.6%2026-03-28 01:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.34%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.66%1.6%2026-03-28 01:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.34%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.73%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.93%7.8%2026-03-28 01:34
Betsson🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.34%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.73%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.93%7.8%2026-03-28 01:34
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.33%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.11%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.55%8.7%2026-03-28 01:35