The School of Odds
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Richmond Tigers v West Coast Eagles

Kickoff: 2026-08-02 03:10 UTC

Final: Richmond Tigers 84–73 West Coast Eagles

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Richmond Tigers (Local)

Prediction 45.57%2.19fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -0.940%
Kelly -1.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.72%45.54%45.54%47.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.072.102.1551.81%48.36%47.62%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

West Coast Eagles (Visit)

Prediction 54.43%1.84fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -2.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.63%54.46%54.46%56.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.721.731.8061.73%58.11%57.80%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Richmond Tigers (Local): 45.57%; West Coast Eagles (Visit): 54.43%. For Richmond Tigers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.19. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.15, with an expected value of -2.02%; they did not produce positive expected value.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.02%E -0.940%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -7.47%E -4.40%K -10.68%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 03:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -2.02%E -0.940%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -9.11%E -5.45%K -13.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-31 05:45
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -2.02%E -0.940%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -9.11%E -5.45%K -13.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-31 05:44
Coolbet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.30%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.75%E -2.71%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-02 02:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.30%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.30%E -3.04%K -7.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-02 02:54
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.30%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.84%E -3.38%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 02:09
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.30%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.84%E -3.38%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 00:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.30%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.84%E -3.38%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 00:09
TABtouch🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.30%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.84%E -3.38%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 03:09
Unibet (NL)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.30%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.84%E -3.38%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 03:09
Casumo🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.30%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.84%E -3.38%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 03:09
Grosvenor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.30%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.84%E -3.38%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 03:09
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.30%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.87%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-02 02:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -4.30%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -10.19%E -6.18%K -15.68%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-01 10:44
BetUS🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.53%EV -5.67%E -2.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.47%EV -5.84%E -3.38%K -8.00%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-02 03:00
Unibet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.38%EV -5.67%E -2.74%K -5.30%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-02 00:59
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.58%E -3.21%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.66%E -2.07%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 02:59
Dabble (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -6.58%E -3.21%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -4.21%E -2.39%K -5.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 02:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.58%E -3.21%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.47%E -4.40%K -10.68%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-02 02:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 45.87%EV -7.49%E -3.69%K -7.27%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.13%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.87%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-02 02:55
TAB🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.86%E -4.43%K -8.86%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.03%E -1.13%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 02:59
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -8.86%E -4.43%K -8.86%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -3.66%E -2.07%K -4.76%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-02 02:59
Everygame🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -11.13%E -5.71%K -11.72%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -4.75%E -2.71%K -6.33%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-02 02:44
Unibet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.13%EV -11.13%E -5.71%K -11.72%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.87%EV -9.11%E -5.45%K -13.59%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-02 03:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 45.63%EV -12.05%E -6.24%K -12.95%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 54.37%EV -11.83%E -7.30%K -19.08%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-02 03:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 46.13%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.87%0.4%2026-08-02 03:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 46.13%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.87%0.4%2026-08-02 03:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%0.5%2026-08-02 03:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.39%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.30%70.00I 1.43%NM 1.31%9.1%2026-08-02 03:00
Betsson🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.67%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.11%75.00I 1.33%NM 1.22%9.5%2026-08-02 03:10
NordicBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.67%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.11%75.00I 1.33%NM 1.22%9.5%2026-08-02 03:09

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