Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Richmond Tigers v St Kilda Saints

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 02:36 UTC

Final: Richmond Tigers 45–94 St Kilda Saints

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

27%

73%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Richmond Tigers (Local)

Prediction 26.69%3.75fair odd

EV +6.76%

Edge +1.69%

Kelly +2.25%

Growth +0.152%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

23.81%26.92%26.70%30.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.903.563.604.0034.48%28.09%27.78%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St Kilda Saints (Visit)

Prediction 73.31%1.36fair odd

EV -3.23%

Edge -2.45%

Kelly -10.10%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

69.05%73.08%73.30%76.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.201.281.281.3283.33%78.22%78.13%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Richmond Tigers (Local): 26.69%; St Kilda Saints (Visit): 73.31%. For Richmond Tigers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.75. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.76%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Neds🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +6.76%E +1.69%K +2.25%G +0.152%	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -8.36%E -6.69%K -33.45%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-15 02:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +6.76%E +1.69%K +2.25%G +0.152%	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -8.36%E -6.69%K -33.45%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-15 02:24
TABtouch🎯	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +2.76%E +0.716%K +0.967%G +0.027%	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.63%E -6.06%K -29.34%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-15 02:34
Casumo🎯	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +2.76%E +0.716%K +0.967%G +0.027%	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.63%E -6.06%K -29.34%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-15 02:34
Unibet (NL)🎯	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +2.76%E +0.716%K +0.967%G +0.027%	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.63%E -6.06%K -29.34%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-15 02:34
Grosvenor🎯	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +2.76%E +0.716%K +0.967%G +0.027%	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -7.63%E -6.06%K -29.34%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-15 02:34
DraftKings🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV +0.087%E +0.023%K +0.032%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -6.90%E -5.43%K -25.54%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-15 02:29
TAB🎯	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -1.25%E -0.337%K -0.462%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.16%E -4.81%K -22.01%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-08-15 02:19
Bet Right🎯	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -1.25%E -0.337%K -0.462%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.16%E -4.81%K -22.01%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-08-15 02:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -1.25%E -0.337%K -0.462%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -6.90%E -5.43%K -25.54%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-15 02:29
Unibet🎯	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -1.25%E -0.337%K -0.462%G +0.000%	1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -7.63%E -6.06%K -29.34%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-08-15 02:34
Pinnacle🎯	3.62I 27.62%NM 26.27%EV -3.38%E -0.934%K -1.29%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.73%EV -5.43%E -4.21%K -18.72%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-15 02:24
PlayUp🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -3.92%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.43%E -4.21%K -18.72%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-15 02:20
SportsBet🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -3.92%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -6.16%E -4.81%K -22.01%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-08-15 02:24
Betr (AU)🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.59%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.70%E -3.61%K -15.66%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-09 23:29
Coolbet🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.59%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.70%E -3.61%K -15.66%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-15 02:29
Dabble (AU)🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.59%E -1.88%K -2.63%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.70%E -3.61%K -15.66%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-14 23:54
Marathon Bet🎯	3.48I 28.74%NM 26.74%EV -7.12%E -2.05%K -2.87%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 73.26%EV -6.90%E -5.43%K -25.54%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-08-15 02:24
Paddy Power🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.25%E -2.72%K -3.86%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.70%E -3.61%K -15.66%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-08-15 02:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.25%E -2.72%K -3.86%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.70%E -3.61%K -15.66%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-08-14 22:50
Coral🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.25%E -2.72%K -3.86%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.70%E -3.61%K -15.66%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-08-14 22:50
Tipico (DE)🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -9.25%E -2.72%K -3.86%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -6.90%E -5.43%K -25.54%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-08-14 15:14
NetBet (FR)🎯	3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -11.92%E -3.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 73.33%EV -12.03%E -10.02%K -60.14%G +0.000%	13.6%	2026-08-15 02:29
Betsson🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -19.93%E -6.64%K -9.97%G +0.000%	1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -3.23%E -2.45%K -10.10%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-08-15 00:34
NordicBet🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -19.93%E -6.64%K -9.97%G +0.000%	1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -3.23%E -2.45%K -10.10%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-08-15 00:34
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 30.95%EV -22.60%E -7.79%K -11.89%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 69.05%EV -4.70%E -3.61%K -15.66%G +0.000%	11.4%	2026-08-15 02:24

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%	1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36%	0.7%	2026-08-15 02:34
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%	1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36%	0.7%	2026-08-15 02:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54%	1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46%	0.9%	2026-08-15 02:34

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
LeoVegas🎯	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.17%	80.00I 1.25%NM 1.15%	8.7%	2026-08-15 00:34