The School of Odds
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Richmond Tigers v Port Adelaide Power

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 05:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Richmond Tigers (Local)

Prediction 33.22%3.01fair odd
EV +6.31%
Edge +1.97%
Kelly +2.87%
Growth +0.181%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.67%33.09%33.41%36.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.892.873.2039.22%34.62%34.84%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Port Adelaide Power (Visit)

Prediction 66.78%1.50fair odd
EV -1.17%
Edge -0.790%
Kelly -2.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.75%66.91%66.59%70.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.401.401.4875.76%71.67%71.43%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Richmond Tigers (Local): 33.22%; Port Adelaide Power (Visit): 66.78%. For Richmond Tigers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.01. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.31%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV +6.31%E +1.97%K +2.87%G +0.181%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -9.85%E -7.30%K -28.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-04 04:55
Neds🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV +6.31%E +1.97%K +2.87%G +0.181%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -9.85%E -7.30%K -28.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-04 04:55
PlayUp🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV +4.65%E +1.48%K +2.16%G +0.101%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -7.85%E -5.69%K -20.65%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 04:54
TAB🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV +4.65%E +1.48%K +2.16%G +0.101%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -8.52%E -6.22%K -23.01%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 05:04
Betr (AU)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV +4.65%E +1.48%K +2.16%G +0.101%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -8.52%E -6.22%K -23.01%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 05:09
DraftKings🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV +4.65%E +1.48%K +2.16%G +0.101%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -9.18%E -6.75%K -25.51%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-04 05:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -0.332%E -0.111%K -0.166%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.51%E -4.65%K -16.28%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-04 05:10
Bet Right🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -0.332%E -0.111%K -0.166%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -7.18%E -5.17%K -18.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-04 05:09
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -1.99%E -0.675%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.51%E -4.65%K -16.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-04 05:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -1.99%E -0.675%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.51%E -4.65%K -16.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-04 05:04
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -1.99%E -0.675%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.51%E -4.65%K -16.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-04 05:05
TABtouch🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -1.99%E -0.675%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.51%E -4.65%K -16.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-04 05:04
Pinnacle🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%EV -2.99%E -1.02%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.44%EV -5.84%E -4.14%K -14.25%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-04 04:40
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -4.65%E -1.62%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -6.51%E -4.65%K -16.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 05:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -4.65%E -1.62%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -6.51%E -4.65%K -16.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 04:59
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -5.31%E -1.86%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.51%E -3.15%K -10.49%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-04 04:44
Dabble (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -5.31%E -1.86%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.18%E -3.65%K -12.32%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-04 01:05
SportsBet🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.97%EV -7.64%E -2.75%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.03%EV -4.51%E -3.15%K -10.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 04:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 33.57%EV -7.97%E -2.88%K -4.50%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.43%EV -6.51%E -4.65%K -16.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 04:53
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.64%E -3.14%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.84%E -2.67%K -8.73%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-03 23:45
Everygame🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.64%E -3.14%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.51%E -4.65%K -16.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 02:25
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -8.64%E -3.14%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -7.85%E -5.69%K -20.65%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 05:05
Betsson🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -8.64%E -3.14%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -7.85%E -5.69%K -20.65%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 05:05
BetUS🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -10.30%E -3.81%K -6.06%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -1.17%E -0.790%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-03 08:04
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -10.30%E -3.81%K -6.06%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -6.51%E -4.65%K -16.28%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-04 05:04
NetBet (FR)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.50%EV -12.96%E -4.95%K -8.00%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 66.50%EV -11.85%E -8.98%K -37.04%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-04 04:53
Unibet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.34%EV -13.62%E -5.24%K -8.51%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.66%EV -9.18%E -6.75%K -25.51%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-04 05:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -15.28%E -5.99%K -9.86%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -3.17%E -2.19%K -7.05%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-02 14:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31%1.41I 70.92%NM 70.69%0.3%2026-04-04 05:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%1.41I 70.92%NM 70.38%0.8%2026-04-04 05:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%1.41I 70.92%NM 70.38%0.8%2026-04-04 05:10